Analyzing the Effectiveness of Anti-Child-Sex-Trafficking Policies Targeting Demand versus Supply Using Agent-Based Modeling
Our results show that targeting buyers and protecting victims has a more significant impact on overall reduction of commercial sexual exploitation of minors in King County , matching the results of their policy experiment .
Conclusion : High-Tech Tool Can Improve Policy Discussions
Computational models are becoming vital for public policy processes ( development , implementation , and evaluation ). These models allow policy professionals to experiment with policy options in a virtual world before spending money and political capital on real-world policy change . Experimenting in a real-world policy domain is costly , time-consuming , and requires more resources . Computational models can teach us about the policy domain without impacting any real-world situations where they could prove risky .
Virtually evaluating policies has other advantages relative to extant methods . Traditional approaches have often been unable to indicate how , why , where , for whom , at what cost , and under which conditions policies are effective . But computational models give us detailed clues about what causes what . For instance , we can change one policy assumption at a time to determine the sensitivity of effects to that assumption .
Policy models can be used to investigate counterfactuals in lieu of real-world experimentation . For example , in our model , the simulation is run twice , once while implementing the new policy and once without implementing it . The outcomes of the two simulation runs are compared to evaluate effectiveness of the policy shift .
Policy modeling is a powerful tool for engaging and informing stakeholders and the public . Successful policy modeling requires intensive collaboration among stakeholders : modelers , clients , data-suppliers , law enforcement , government , and NGOs . These new tools are valuable adjuncts to the accrued wisdom of policy professionals and stakeholders . They do not replace policy expertise . Far from it : computer models are impossible without stakeholder expertise . But these tools augment policy expertise in a vital way , generating a new kind of policy debate .
References
Dank , M ., Khan , B ., Downey , P . M ., Kotonias , C ., Mayer D ., Owens C ., ... Yu , L . ( 2014 ). Estimating the size and structure of the underground commercial sex economy in eight major U . S . cities . The Urban Institute . Retrieved from https :// www . urban .
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