Analyzing the Effectiveness of Anti-Child-Sex-Trafficking Policies Targeting Demand versus Supply Using Agent-Based Modeling
据 , 我们建立了一个基于 agent 的模拟建模 。 该模型在一个虚 拟社会中模拟了这两项执法策略 , 并产生了以陷入商业性贩 卖的儿童数量 、 和涉及儿童的商业性交易数量为形式的输出 数据 。 输出数据能被诠释为一种对政策效果的衡量 。 我们首 先将该模型描述为 “ 商业性儿童性剥削 ” 。 我们随后评价了 这两项执法策略 , 并使用从西雅图和金县其余地区的数据对 模型进行了校准 。 研究结果显示 , 比起性供给 , 针对性需求 的策略更能减少儿童性贩卖 。
关键词 : 基于 Agent 建模 ; 政策分析 ; 儿童性贩卖 ; 金县
Introduction
In October 2014 , King County
launched a policy program , Buyer
Beware , designed to reduce the demand for purchase of commercial sex online ( Satterberg , 2014 ). Its suggested policies shifted the prosecutorial focus from supply side ( arresting prostituted people ) to demand side ( targeting buyers of commercial sex ). Targeting demand through the Buyer Beware program can reduce prostitution by 20 % within two years after its implementation ( 2015-2016 ) ( Hopperstad , 2014 ). The Buyer Beware program is committed to running reverse-sting operations on a monthly or bi-monthly basis ( Demand Abolition ’ s CEASE Network Seattle ). A reverse sting operation is when a police officer poses as a prostitute to arrest a buyer .
Around 300-500 children are commercially sexually exploited each year in King County ( Briner , 2016 ). In 2015 , Demand Abolition estimated that 60 % to 80 % of sex trades were facilitated by a third party ( Gross , 2015 ). In Seattle , the cost of sex purchased online is $ 125- $ 150 / 30 minutes and $ 175- $ 200 / hour . Pimps , who set quota ranges of $ 500- $ 800 for each girl , have two to three girls or women working on a daily basis in Seattle ( Dank et al ., 2014 ). There are 20,000 – 27,000 sex buyers in King County ( Satterberg , 2014 ; Underwood , 2016 ). Even though a buyer might desire to engage in sex with adults only , they have no reliable way of verifying the age of those they solicit and many are children ( under 18 ). According to a survey study of buyers of sex from adolescent girls in Georgia , 47 % of buyers proceeded with their sex purchase even when they were given three cues that the prostituted person was underage ( The Schapiro Group , 2010 ).
In 2009 , before adopting the Buyer Beware program policies , 53 prostituted minors were charged for prostitution and 2 buyers were charged for buying sex from children . In 2015 , 46 buyers were charged for buying sex from children and 0 children were
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