Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 5, Number 2, Fall 2019 | Page 8

Multi-Group Conflict Paths : Anticipatory Scenarios of Attitudes and Outcomes

Miron Kaufman

Professor , Department of Physics , Cleveland State University m . kaufman @ csuohio . edu

Sanda Kaufman

Professor , Department of Urban Studies , Cleveland State University s . kaufman @ csuohio . edu

Hung The Diep

Journal on Policy and Complex Systems • Volume 5 , Number 2 • Fall 2019

Professor , Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Modélisation , Université de Cergy-Pontoise , France diep @ u-cergy . fr

Abstract

We explore intractable social conflicts in various contexts where unexpected outcomes can be costly and / or violent . We extend a network model of two-group conflict dynamics to multiple groups . We study the time dependence of the groups ’ mean attitudes , using mean-field theory . We incorporate contextual characteristics that alter the group dynamics . We find that in time , regardless of initial conditions , the paths followed by the groups ’ mean attitudes converge to a multi-dimensional attractor . Small differences in initial conditions do not diminish or diverge exponentially over time , but instead generate stable oscillations . We offer examples for which the model could be used to construct scenarios of conflict paths in time and we examine how context changes might affect these paths and in-group attitudes . The scenarios can inform the strategies that groups might select to contend with each other .

Keywords : social networks ; social physics of conflicts ; group cohesion ; intra- and inter-group interactions ; group decisions ; collective behaviors

5 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 5.2.2