Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS
关键词 : 库尔德人 ; 民族冲突 ; 中东 ; 地理信息系统建模 ; 决策者 ; 计算社会科学
Introduction
The Kurdish dream to have an
independent state can be traced back to post-World War II . The emergence of new countries like Iraq , Syria , and Turkey , after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire , changed the borders of the Middle East . However , British policymakers divided similar ethnicities in different countries during the process of defining the new nations derived from the Ottoman Empire . One of those ethnicities was the Kurds , who were split among those emerging countries .
Ethnicity is a broad concept constructed from certain features , such as language , skin color , religion , race , culture , etc .. Thus , ethnicity is a kind of social distinction which shapes the identity of ethnic groups and their political processes . ( Ashcroft , Griffiths , & Tiffin , 2013 ) defined an individual ’ s ethnic group as a solid identifier that cannot be denied or taken away by others .
( Bates et al ., 2003 ) defined ethnic conflict as an extended period of violence by ethnic minorities to challenge a central government and pursue significant change in their status . An ethnic minority is a group of people who experience systematic discrimination and domination , such as the Kurds . The Kurdish independence movement is an ethnic conflict within the Middle East . ( Hill & Rothchild , 1986 ) and ( Gurr , 1993 ) argued that ethnic and political conflicts act like a contagion . ( Sadowski , 1998 ) claimed that the behavior of neighboring countries influences the behavior of each geographic unit . In other words , in our interdependent world , social and political events are not isolated and might be influenced by other societies ( Klingman , 1980 ).
Thus , it is important to study the Kurdish conflict because an Iraqi Kurdistan movement is not only a matter of Iraq ’ s territorial integrity ; in addition , Kurds in Iraq influence other Kurds in the area in an effort toward their dream of having a separate province . This is a matter of national security for Iran , Syria , and Turkey ; this then is a matter of regional and international security . Policymakers of those mentioned countries are worried about this area , but they are not alone : superpowers like Russia and the United States have their own policy objectives in these regions . Thus , it is timely and important to study the Kurdish conflict because a Kurdish nationalistic movement has changed and will further change the borders in the Middle East .
The objective of this study is to propose a model that explains the expansion of Kurdish ethnic conflict . To address it , I consider four factors ( inde-
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