Journal on Policy and Complex Systems • Volume 5 , Number 2 • Fall 2019
Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS
Khadijeh Salimi , Ph . D Candidate Graduate Program in International Studies , Old Dominion University
Ksali001 @ odu . edu
Dr . Regina Karp , Director Graduate Program in International Studies
rkarp @ odu . edu
Acknowledgment
I would like to show my gratitude to the Dr . Erika Frydenlund , Research Assistant Professor , for her comments on an earlier version of the manuscript that greatly improved the manuscript .
Abstract
The Kurdish dream of having an independent state has changed the borders of the Middle East , which might change more in the future . The objective of this study is to propose a model that will show how theoretically-derived may factors may influence the expansion of Kurdish movement across Iraq , Syria , and Iran . To propose this , I assume that Kurdish ethnicity , central government hegemony , distance from the center of the Kurdish movement ( Arbil ), and religion are four factors ( independent variables ) that may affect this expansion . A Geographic Information System and , more specifically , Weighted Overlay Scenario Base Modeling was used in this study to model the possible Kurdish conflict area . The results of the model support the existing research in the field ; Kurdish ethnicity , having a weak central government , and religious tensions are all important factors which prohibit or facilitate Kurdish conflicts .
Keywords : Kurds ; ethnic conflict ; Middle East ; GIS modeling ; policymaker ; computational social science
23 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 5.2.3