Multi-Group Conflict Paths : Anticipatory Scenarios of Attitudes and Outcomes
search , 2013 ) to assess intra-group and inter-group linkages and derive a range of scenarios ( Kaufman , et al ., 2019 ). Our sensitivity tests indicated that the scenarios would not change meaningfully within a range of values for each of our parameters .
For BiH , we examined three different “ temperature ” levels — low , medium , and high — to capture the effect of the international context on this conflict . The temperature T is incorporated in the model as each coupling , J and K , is inversely proportional to T . We found that as external events and interventions ( such as European Union actions ) became more salient , corresponding to “ higher temperatures ,” the conflict scenario became more protracted . This may be true in general , though the factors that raise the temperature in each specific conflict may differ . In the US-NK-C example , we would expect the temperature to rise and long-run divergences between the United States and North Korea to increase if countries affecting this relationship ( Japan or Taiwan ) make unilateral moves . Conversely , we may see a drop in temperature corresponding to a de-escalation in the relationship between the United States and Mexico over the migration issue if economic considerations lead Mexico to discourage entry of United States-bound migrants at the U . S . border . 6 The scenarios offer some insights into what it would take ( including “ temperature factors ”) to alter the conflicts ’ trajectories .
4 . Conclusions
We have proposed a statistical physics dynamic model of interacting networks to represent multiple groups in conflict and derive scenarios of possible conflict paths and patterns of outcomes , given data that allow estimation of the intraand inter-group attitudes and linkages . We have discussed some examples involving three main groups . Our assumptions with respect to ranges of attitude values and symmetries can be relaxed , if warranted , for specific cases .
Intractable conflicts tend to recur and cycle among a number of possible outcomes , which our model can uncover . The more numerous the possible outcomes among which the conflict cycles , the more intractable it may be in the sense that it is more difficult to settle on any choice when there are many . The fewer the possibilities , the likelier it is that one outcome may emerge . Thus , the model reveals the novel possibility of different degrees of intractability and allows us to distinguish them in specific cases . The presence of the limit cycle ( Figures 3 and 6 ) expresses a new type of sensitivity to initial conditions : in-between stability and instability ( chaos ). If the interactions are only between neighbors ( short range ), chaotic behavior emerges ( Kaufman et al ., 2019 ).
The relatively simple quality of the model has both advantages and limitations . The advantages derive from the model ’ s simplicity , yielding interesting anticipatory results usable in specific
6 This has indeed occurred in 2019 .
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