Multi-Group Conflict Paths : Anticipatory Scenarios of Attitudes and Outcomes
that we should consider when trying to understand and account for intricate webs of contributors to recurrence , escalation , or de-escalation . Although the predictive ability of such models decreases relatively quickly with time and hinges on correct model specification , insights into contributors to intractability can be derived . In contrast to such explanatory models , our model is anticipatory : it looks into the future to derive possible directions these conflicts might take , based only on the dynamics of intra-group and inter-group interactions in time . Its purpose is to enable a mapping of sorts for possible conflict trajectories ( scenarios ) that parties in conflict need to consider in preparing their engagement strategies .
We assume that when groups are locked in social conflict , they are not necessarily internally homogeneous regarding how the conflicts should be addressed . At any moment in time , within each group , individuals may adopt ( within a range ) a number of frames about the issues at stake and differing attitudes with respect to the ways out . The members of each group interact to persuade each other of their points of view . Thus , at any point in time , the average stance of a group reflects this mutual persuasion process and can shift in time even without any input from external effects . We assume the groups to be homophilic ( Aiello et al ., 2012 ; McPherson et al ., 2001 ), because inside each group members share characteristics , 2 such as ideology or perspective on the conflict ; they tend to communi- cate mostly or only with each other and not with individual members of other groups .
The groups may interact with each other as well . One group may either persuade another group to form a coalition or reject the overall position of another group with opposing views . In the North Korea example , the United States may want to rally China against the North Korean position of continuing the development and testing of nuclear weapons , but China and North Korea also share some interests . The United States , Mexico , and the Central American countries of Guatemala , Honduras and El Salvador are waging a conflict over population migration , with Mexico at times helping its southern neighbors and sometimes assisting the United States in stemming the flow of migrants . Great Britain and the European Union are locked in a post-Brexit conflict , with obstacles to agreement involving Ireland . In the United States , before national elections , Republicans and Democrats tend to polarize and each of these two groups tries to attract independents . Within Bosnia and Herzegovina ( BiH ), three ethnic groups — Bosniaks , Serbs , and Croats — are in a latent conflict that flares up at times , such as preceding elections , with a different pattern of inter-group relationships than in the other examples .
We begin here by modeling three-group conflicts , such as the United States , North Korea , and China ( US-NK-C ), BiH , or the United States , Mexico , and Central American ( US-M-
2 McPherson et al . ( 2001 ) described homophily as “ similarity breeds connection .”
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