Meta-Decision Modeling of Wicked Environmental Policy Design Problems : Understanding Conservation Versus Development Valuation Conflicts in Tanzanian , Vietnamese , and Peruvian Social – Ecological Systems
Asim Zia
Journal on Policy and Complex Systems • Volume 5 , Number 1 • Spring 2019
Abstract
The central hypothesis of the study is that policy design problems are “ wicked ” because they involve a host of meta-decision choices , such as ( i ) which values should be used by decision makers to measure the outcomes of alternate policy and planning alternatives ? ( ii ) What is the logic of establishing space – time boundaries by which a policy or planning alternative is included in the set of alternatives ? ( iii ) Given the multiplicity of decision rules , how should decision makers choose which descriptive or normative decision rule / algorithm to apply in a given context ? ( iv ) How shall the weights be assigned to the pluralistic values and actions on the basis of which decision makers judge their decisions ? While these meta-decision choices are contained in every decision confronted by planners and policy makers , it is hypothesized that there is no single “ best ” or “ optimal ” procedure ( i . e . governance structure ) to decide about meta-decision choices in complex social – ecological systems . The complexity and wickedness of these four meta-decision choices is elaborated in the specific context of tropical forest conservation versus economic development valuation conflicts in three tropical countries — Peru , Tanzania , and Vietnam . A decision theoretical framework on meta-decision models ( MDMs ) is presented that uses iterative multi-stakeholder participatory mechanisms to explicitly illuminate the system-wide trade-offs that emerge when alternate meta-decision choices are made in evaluating conservation versus development conflicts . Theoretical and methodological implications are drawn to inform the design and development of
3 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 5.1.2