Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
engage in deliberations and interactive exercises about the conservation versus development conflicts at the three study sites . Stakeholders were engaged in a variety of interactive exercises to brainstorm about meta-decision-making choices for their respective planning problems . Quantitative data on pluralistic values and their weights by different stakeholder groups was collected and analyzed to compare alternate planning options in these conflicting situations . In addition , qualitative data on stakeholder perceptions about system boundaries and different decision rules / algorithms to resolve these problems was also collected and analyzed .
MDMs provide a multiple stakeholder participatory methodological framework to model the wicked environmental policy design problems , and this paper is just an initial step in this direction . Part 5 of this paper concludes and provides a future research agenda for both possible theoretical developments of MDMs and their applications in understanding and modeling wicked environmental policy design problems .
( 2 ) Formal Decision Theoretical Concept of Meta-Decision Choices
Table 1 . Descriptive and Normative Decision Algorithms and the Specific Situations in Those Algorithms Requiring Meta-Decision Choices
Decision theory could be mostly classified into four categories : descriptive , normative , preτ D
Descriptive Decision Algorithm
1 . Trend analysis / forecasting ( Armstrong , 2001 ; Porter et al ., 1991 )
2 . Descriptive scenario analysis ( Ringland , 1998 )
3 . Expected utility ( Becker , 1976 )
4 . Prospect theory ( Kahneman & Tversky , 1979 )
5 . Revealed preference ( Herriges & Kling , 1999 ; Wong , 1978 )
6 . Weighted utility ( Chew , 1983 )
7 . Implicit expected utility ( Dekel , 1986 )
8 . Lottery-dependent utility ( Becker & Sarin , 1987 )
9 . Rank-dependent utility ( Quiggin , 1982 )
Specific Situations Requiring Meta-Decision Choices
Choice of variable , for which the trend / forecast is being estimated ; separating stochastic from structural trends
Choice of variables for generating scenarios ; missing variables ; uncertainties ; ignorance
Incomplete information , nontransferable utilities , nonmonetary values , future discount rates
Incomplete information , future discount rates , extreme event likelihoods
Incomplete markets , nonmarket valuation
Choice of weights
Choice of implicit utility function
Assumptions about risk-taking behaviors
Intransitive preferences
8