Complexity Analytics and Public Policy : Cautions and Opportunities Going Forward
fashioned a model which captures that process called the NK Fitness Landscape Model . The evolutionary process is obviously far more complex ( and complicated !) than I have describe , but there is just one more piece of the story that needs to be added to enable us to move forward . The state space of the bit string consists of every possible combination of zeros and ones of length N ( the length of the string — this is the N in Kauffman ’ s NK Fitness Landscape model ). Since there are two possible values at each position , there are 2 N possible configurations of this state space . This number grows very large very quickly , and it is only the increasing availability of increasingly fast computers with increasingly large and inexpensive storage space that makes these kinds of models possible . The collection of all such configurations is in this case , 65,536 ( 2 16 ) different strings representing all possible unique configurations of zero and one in a16 bit long string .
The process of evolution is random . It is , however , possible for it to be constrained . Constraints are created by so-called alleles which are combinations of genes that tend to evolve together , like brown skin and curly hair , or blond hair and blue eyes . The extent to which the evolutionary process is constrained is captured by the K in Kauffman ’ s NK Fitness Landscape model . Fitness is a measure of the probability of evolutionary success . Fewer constraints lead to fewer bumps in the road and a smoother landscape . A highly constrained pro- cess creates a “ rugged ” landscape . Peaks and valleys in the landscape represent high and low fitness values . So , a fitness landscape is a surface over state space that offers a measure of the probability of evolutionary success at each point .
Networks
Natural laws are neither necessarily correct nor immutable as given . They are nothing more than the best approximation we can make now . The earth is careening around the sun , the sun is careening around the galaxy , and the galaxy around the universe all in coupled orbits held in balance by “ gravity .” There is no known universal fixed point of reference in time or space . 1 Everything is defined relative to something else . Our scientific systems of thought , whether explicitly or not , are fundamentally interdependent and relational . Mass has no independent existence and is technically defined as energy at rest . Measurement of time and space depend on your frame of reference . The effects of major force fields can be simply transformed away , and who knows what the recent validation of dark energy and dark matter portend ?
Complexity science is completely comfortable with this set of circumstances , and most sciences have begun converting themselves to a complexity motif ( Quantum Hamiltonian Complexity , Complex Systems Biology , Mathematical and Computational Chemistry ... ). We have just taken a look
1 Though the dark matter-related discovery that the universe is expanding faster suggests that we might be able to project that process backwards to the physical location of the Big Bang .
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