Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 3, Issue 2 | Page 51

Policy and Complex Systems
• Does the addition of a third identity bring forth stability in the environment ?
• How does the initial size of that third population affect its impact on the environment as a whole ?
• How do the dynamics change when adding additional groups of varying sizes ?
• Are there other incentives , mechanisms , or interaction rules that can be introduced to reduce bias by allowing the model to move toward or away from genocide ?
In terms of policy recommendations , possible questions are :
• What incentive could agents have not to act ? For example , would policies leading to a strong economy with a strong middle class provide a source of restraint yielding an effect similar to that seen in Experiment 3 with uniform Threshold to Act ?
• Given an incentive for peace , such as a strong economy , what policies could be implemented in societies with identitybased divisions that improve economic conditions , and how can they be tailored such that all groups benefit ?
Finally , this implementation of an ABM uses random uniform distributions for all parameters . While this has been informative , there may be other distributions , such as normal or power-law , which could produce insightful results . A full analysis of the model requires testing different distributions on every parameter and combination of parameters in order to determine differences in outcomes .
As stated above , while the broad causal loop diagram in Figure 1 and its explanation provides the framework for understanding the scope and complexity of the problem of genocide , a formal SD model implementation requires a stock and flow model in order to analyze the problem from this perspective . The causal loop diagram shown in Figure 8 provides a starting point for this model , but could be expanded to allow for greater complexity of feedback mechanisms , or exploration of areas of policy interest . Beyond the impact of the economy , the model could explore the effect of sanctions , political resistance , or armed resistance from internal or external actors . The above model can then be taken in combination with the results of ABM analysis to derive comprehensive policy decisions that account for macroand micro-level effects .
Finally , social science researchers in genocide studies have a significant restraint on their ability to analyze , understand , and predict the problem because they must wait for an emergence , one that brings with it a great deal of human suffering , in order to validate their models . This research attempts to synthesize their knowledge , adapting it to a computational approach in order to develop models that are useful and informative . While the research and models are not fully developed , they have already produced intriguing results . As this work matures , it has a strong potential to put the power of computational modeling and simulation into the hands of social scientists , such that they can benefit from its analytic and predictive capabilities . This , in turn , increases the ability of society as a whole to more effectively address and mitigate the problems associated with identity-based conflict .
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