Modeling Social Media Effect on Civil Revolutions
models for technological information channels that impact two factors : the level of dissatisfaction with the regime and logistical information about when , where , and how potential protests will occur . His models are also beneficial in drawing our main feedback loop shown in Figure 3 .
According to Little ( 2015 ), public grievance levels against the regime have an ambiguous effect on protest levels ( Little , 2015 ). There could be more or less popular effect than expected . Although sharing more complaints about the regime can increase average grievance levels against the government , there is no exact correlation between anti-regime content and protests . However , we draw this relationship with the effect of homophily as a positive relationship and an increasing factor in protest movements .
Social Media Effect on Civil Revolutions : Political Protests Examples with Two Real Cases . As mentioned earlier , since the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt in early 2011 , scholars have researched the Internet and social media contribution to political change in authoritarian regimes . Tufekci and Wilson ’ s ( 2012 ) research “ Social Media and the Decision to Participate in Political Protest ” shows observations from Tahrir Square as events unfolded in real time ( Tufekci & Wilson , 2012 ). This paper is evidence of how the protestors used social media and the Internet .
To understand Egypt ’ s conditions better , Tufekci and Wilson ( 2012 ) present the timeline of the revolution . From 2005 on , there were persistent protest efforts by a small but dedicated group in Egypt . In 2009 , Facebook introduced its Arabic language version . This amplified communication opportunities and in 2010 , Tunisian unrest broke out . Finally , in 2011 , the Egyptian revolution began after 18 days of sustained protests ( Tufekci & Wilson , 2012 ).
For Tahrir , there was a new system of political communication due to technological improvements . This system involved three broad and interrelated components : ( 1 ) an independent TV channels ( Al-Jazeera ), ( 2 ) the rapid diffusion of the Internet and the rise of social media ( Facebook and Twitter ), and ( 3 ) the decreasing costs and the expanding capabilities of mobile phones ( Tufekci & Wilson , 2012 ).
Tufekci and Wilson ( 2012 ) conducted a survey of media use by Egyptian protesters . They interviewed 1,050 people using both random and snowball sampling approaches . They demonstrated that “ people learned about the protests primarily through interpersonal communication using Facebook , phone contact , or face-to-face conversation ” ( Tufekci & Wilson , 2012 ). According to their statistical analysis , controlling for other factors , social media use had a positive impact on protest attendance on the first day and Facebook is the most common communication source among surveyed people .
The results of their study underline the central role of social media , particularly Facebook and Twitter , which played a role in the protests leading up to the February 2011 resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak . As mentioned , although Facebook only became available in Arabic in 2009 , protesters shared most of their pictures and videos about the protests through Facebook . On the other hand , protesters used Twitter and blogs to communicate text about the demonstrations ( Tufekci & Wilson , 2012 ).
Another political protest example that we want to introduce in order to provide a worldwide perspective is the 15 M protests in Spain , held on 15 May 2011 ( Anduiza , Cristancho , & Sabucedo , 2014 ).
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