Policy and Complex Systems
This paper presents a survey of ABM role in understanding civil revolutions dynamics . First , we introduce the benefits of ABM with human systems . Then , the second part compares computational model examples for civil revolutions . In addition to this comparison of computational models , we discuss a brief literature review on the social media effect on civil revolutions .
At the end of our research , we hope to find answers for the following questions :
• What kind of parameters do we need to consider while modeling civil revolutions ?
• Are there any specific conditions that produce civil revolutions ?
• What are the commonalities between different instances of successful protests or civil revolutions ?
• How can we verify our model results ?
• How does the structure of political protests change ?
• How does the social media affect the evolution of civil revolutions ?
• How does homophily affect the social media usage ?
Method
Simulating Civil Revolutions with Agent- Based Modeling
In this section , we discuss in detail the benefits of applying ABM in simulating human systems . According to Bonabeau ( 2002 ), there are three main benefits of ABM . First , ABM captures emergent phenomena created by the interactions of agents ( Bonabeau , 2002 ). Second , ABM provides a natural description of the system that makes the model closer to the real world , making it easier to interpret its dynamics compared with other traditional modeling approaches ( Bonabeau , 2002 ). In addition , ABM can run data-driven simulations . No matter how big the data size is users can implement this data onto their model . Third , ABM is flexible in terms of changing agent ’ s attributes and framework of the model , meaning that it is faster to create experimental results with scenarios and policy analysis in ABM ( Bonabeau , 2002 ). With ABM software such as the free and accessible NetLogo , users can build models ( Wilensky , 2016 ).
In this study , the main interest is modeling the effect of social media on civil revolutions . We also introduce a literature review on computational modeling of civil revolutions . Civil revolutions , in other words protests or demonstrations , come from the citizens who believe their actions are for the common good . For our research , it is important to understand the dynamics of the protests before , during , and after their occurrences .
ABM of civil revolutions . There is rich literature on ABM simulations of social civil revolutions . The first published paper about ABM of civil riots is from Epstein ( Epstein , 2002 ). He developed a rebellion model that considers simple threshold-based rules to represent collective behavior and contagion effects . There is a threshold for agents to join a protest or riot . If other agents join the protests , its grievance level exceeds the threshold , and it turns to an active one . The active agents are in interaction with police officers , who serve the government . The police officers can arrest the protesters , who may face jail terms .
There is another parameter called government legitimacy in the model . It reflects the agents ’ trust of their government and its rules . Every agent wants to maximize its utility function according to its internal
17