Policy and Complex Systems
Table 5 . Deviations from target adoption decisions
and adoption decisions relative to their Nash optimal strategy levels .
Calibration
Prices
Agents are assumed to produce an agricultural good ( corn ) and act as price-takers . Given the constant fluctuation of corn prices in the United States , we conduct an OLS regression for the mean corn price from 1996 to 2016 on logarithm of year to capture the general price trend , and use a triangular distribution with maximum and minimum defined by the predicted mean and standard deviation of the prices to reflect the fluctuation .
Yield
In order to determine how much agricultural product ( corn ) is produced by each agent , we calculate the average yield of each unit of land . Similarly , we conduct an OLS regression for mean corn yield from 1996 to 2016 on logarithm of year to capture the general trend in corn production , and use a triangular distribution to reflect the fluctuation , with maximum and minimum defined by the standard deviation of the average yield .
Pollution
Following Zia et al . ( 2016b ), we provide an estimate for the average Phosphorus leakage of cornfields based on the maximum and minimum Phosphorus loss estimates . During each simulation , the modeler has the option to modify the mean and standard deviation of average Phosphorus leakage . However , this value affects all simulation cases equally and therefore does not influence any relative comparison conclusions we draw .
Simulation Results
We present the results of the simulation experiment , and discuss the sensitivity of the results .
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