Policy and Complex Systems - Volume 3 Number 2 - Fall 2017
Modeling a Victim-Centered Approach for Detection of Human Trafficking Victims Within Migration Flows
Brant M . Horio A , Kyle M . Ballard B
Disclaimer : The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any U . S . government agency .
Abstract
Human trafficking — the use of force , fraud , or coercion to compel individuals into sex trafficking or forced labor — is a global problem . It is challenging to determine the magnitude of this “ hidden crime ” because the detection of victims is largely dependent on establishing a sufficient level of trust between them and authorities that encourages victims to self-identify . The U . S . government promotes a victimcentered approach for the detection of human trafficking , the implementation of which is becoming widely accepted as the most effective means to detect trafficking victims , especially in scenarios of increased vulnerability such as the European migration crisis . Using the migration crisis and the networks among migrant populations as context , this paper presents human trafficking as a dynamic process whereby a victim ’ s willingness to self-identify adapts over time both spatially ( e . g ., due to influence from nearby neighbors ) and through networks ( e . g ., familial , country of origin , traveling parties ). We employ an agent-based model for exploring the victim-centered approach and its effectiveness for detecting human trafficking victims in an abstract representation of migrant flows . Our sensitivity analysis over a range of initial cooperation levels among migrants finds a tipping point exists for when the victim-centered approach will achieve positive results . It also suggests minimum system conditions for the propagation and persistence of migrants ’ strategic intention to self-identify . We also discuss our findings with respect to tradeoff considerations for balancing immigration policy objectives , with the need for allowing sufficient time for positive cooperation among the migrant population to develop .
Keywords : agent-based model , human trafficking , migration , social network analysis , preferential attachment network , transnational organized crime
A
LMI
B
Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons , U . S . Department of State
143 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 3.2.9