Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 3, Issue 2 | Page 119

Modeling Complexity in Human Built Systems
ability of aggregate beds in the moment of aggregate decisions likely influences how the dynamic unfolds — as does the amount of aggregate worker time available to make decisions . These underlying aggregate-level time series dynamics , then , reveal rich , and previously unobservable , information about the operation of the child welfare system .
In the longer run , knowing the linear versus non-linear structure in the time
series data will advance how we operate the out-of-home care system . In the presence of non-linearity , efforts to control the system can have counter intuitive effects . Knowing that non-linear behavior is present offers the possibility of more precise policymaking . However , before going down this path we have to understand what the hidden structure within the time series data now .
Figure 1a . Total congregate care entries 2000 – 2015 .
Figure 1b . Total congregate care exits 2000 – 2015 .
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