Scenarios of Social Conflict Dynamics on Duplex Networks
results . For example , a change in tax policy at the federal or state level may yield some economic results quickly . Also , education policy changes may take longer to show results . Finally , some environmental policies may not show their consequences during the lifetime of the decision makers .
Planners and ecologists faced with complex interacting social – ecological systems use scenarios to explore possible consequences of planning or management decisions ( Butler , Corvalan , & Koren , 2005 ; Cobb & Thompson , 2012 ; Kriegler et al ., 2012 ). Physicists use toy models to represent and study complex interactions ( Marzuoli , 2008 ). One method for generating possible conflict outcomes — or scenarios — is to construct a model that can be queried in what – if fashion to explore consequences of different conditions or of adopting various strategies . We combine the network approach from physics with the scenario technique from planning to examine the range of possible outcome of social conflicts . We begin with two groups and represent their interactions using a duplex network ( two interrelated networks ) model . We generate and explore scenarios of the interactions that differ in the assumptions about the values of a small number of parameters . Any of the two groups could then use the model to ask what – if questions that can help the group select a strategy that might be wise for a range of scenarios instead of just one predicted possibility . Conflict strategies that cover a range of possible outcomes are considered robust ( Lempert et al ., 2002 ; Lempert , Groves , Popper , & Bankes , 2006 ), as opposed to fragile ones relying on point predictions .
We propose to illustrate the potential of network models to anticipate outcomes of social conflict dynamics through scenario generation . We begin by outlining a duplex network model , drawing the correspondence between elements and relationships of a two-group social conflict and some physics concepts that can be studied on networks . Then we show how the duplex network model can be applied to explore various conflict scenarios , using two recent social conflict confrontations — the 2016 “ Brexit ” referendum and the 2016 presidential elections in the United States . In our examples , the outcome is already known . However , when the model is applied to a conflict before the outcome has materialized , it can provide scenarios that a group can use to devise or alter its strategy in response to the dynamic at work and anticipated outcomes . The advantage of such outcome scenarios over other analyses that can inform strategy is that it parsimoniously offers a global perspective on possibilities .
Model
We consider two groups in conflict . In each group , each individual has a preference regarding how the conflict should be resolved . Each individual has an attitude s ( corresponding to spin in physics ) with respect to a specific conflict . In group 1 , individuals ’ attitudes range from −M1 ( very open to negotiating some agreement ) to M1 ( inclined to protracted conflict due to adherence to extreme positions consistent with one ’ s ideology ). Similarly , in group 2 , individuals ’ attitudes range from −M2 to M2 . Here for illustrative purposes we consider M1 = M2 = 3 .
Members within each group are networked : they interact with each other . Each individual acts with a certain intensity to persuade others in the group to his / her point of view and is subject to others ’ persuasion efforts . We assume that each individual interacts with all other individuals inside his / her own group as well as with individuals in the other group . The pattern
6