Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 1, Number 2, Fall 2014 | Page 86

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VII - Appendix : List of Selected Modeling Techniques

This list is not comprehensive ; it focuses on modeling techniques referred to in the paper and others that are policy relevant . Each technique is briefly described with its assumptions . The references provide authoritative descriptions of how to use these methods , but are generally technically sophisticated .

Concept mapping : Static diagram method that uses ( mathematically calculated ) similarity to organize qualitative information collected during a brainstorming phase ( Trochim et al ., 2004 ).
Soft Systems Methodology : Static diagram method that combines different detailed qualitative perspectives about a policy issue ( Checkland & Poulter , 2006 ).
Flowcharts : Dynamic diagram method that describes processes , combining both quantitative and qualitative information . The chart consists of a series of boxes denoting activities and decisions steps , with arrows indicating the sequence . Decision steps have multiple paths emanating and sequence choice depends on some question ( such as whether resources are available ) that may involve interaction .
Causal Loop Diagrams : Dynamic diagram method that focuses on the flow of groups of people or resources through a system and their accumulation at different points ( Sterman , 2000 ). Qualitative , aggregated , and captures interaction .
Social Network Analysis : Combination of a ( usually ) static diagram and quantitative measures . The diagram identifies some relationship between people , countries , or other individuals of interest . The power of the method arises from the analytical techniques that are applied to the diagram to understand the implications for influence of the relationship structure ( Newman , 2003 ).
Games : A generic term intended to cover computer-based serious games , board games and role playing games such as military exercises . Games are modeling techniques in the sense described in this paper where the game has a policy relevant purpose and the rules are intended to represent some target system and induce realistic behavior from human participants . Dynamic , qualitative , individual , and captures interaction .
State Transition models are a general term for many closely related methods that are known by different ( and sometimes inconsistent ) names . All are quantitative , but other characteristics depend on the particular implementation . Bayesian Networks combine a diagram with probability values , and can be either dynamic or static . The model describes how the probability of one entity being in a particular state depends on the states of other entities ; with a network diagram depicting the interacting entities influence that probability ( Koller & Friedman , 2009 ). Dynamic models without interaction are often known as Markov Chains , and are used to simulate processes where there are inherent probabilities of changing from one state to another ( such as healthy to symptomatic ). State Transition models can operate at either the individual or aggregate level .
Microsimulation : Data intensive dynamic computer method that models individuals without interaction . Uses detailed administrative data to create a synthetic population , adjusts the simulated individuals to take into account changes since the data were collected ( such as ageing ), and then assess-
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