Journal of Critical Infrastructure Policy
Strategic Summary and Synthesis
In any potential catastrophe — even in many disasters short of catastrophic — the operational and tactical responses will be complex beyond full comprehension . The more complex , the more unpredictable , the less controllable . In this profoundly uncertain context , crafting an effective , coherent , and consistent strategy is as crucial as it will be difficult . What advantages can we deploy against the disadvantages anticipated ?
We can now retrospectively recognize that from March to May 2020 , an effective pandemic response by the U . S . grocery supply chain exposed three crucial strategic issues :
• The adaptability and limitations of preexisting capacity ,
• The flexibility of U . S . freight markets ,
• The motivating and organizing influence of consumer demand .
With the benefit of this shared experience , we can also recognize how these same three strategic issues were at the core of feeding millions of survivors of the Triple Disaster in Japan , 43 the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico , 44 and other catastrophes .
Because the Puget Sound region has already been actively engaged in a private-public , data-informed process of researching and assessing Supply Chain Resilience , it is possible to confidently conclude that in case of a major Cascadia Seismic Event , the region will :
• Lose a substantial proportion of preexisting local capacity to process food
• Lose its principal route for transporting food produced / processed outside the region
• Lose a substantial proportion of preexisting ability to conduct digital transactions
The result — unless mitigated — is such a substantial loss of pull , push , and flow of food as to seriously endanger the population that survives the initial event and subsequent after-shocks . Given the population ’ s size , no credible alternative source of calories can be deployed in a timely way . These three losses must be prevented or mitigated to avoid significant fatalities and human suffering . Whenever a potential catastrophe impacts a large population , issues of push capacity , flow connections , and pull capacity are fundamental strategic concerns .
32