Cover Story
Erratic tides
Early risks mark New Year start
By William B . Cassidy
Astrong but slower expanding US economy is signaling strong growth of import volumes at least until spring and no letup of the air cargo boom , while raising hopes of some semblance of a surface freight recovery .
The specter of labor strife and new tariffs , along with strong sales , is driving US retailers to keep imports surging through the spring , according to the Global Port Tracker report from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation , released in early December . On a year-over-year basis , Global Port Tracker projects volumes to rocket 12 % in January before dipping 4.1 % in February due to a difficult prior-year comparison . US imports in March and April will rise 12.7 % and 6.6 %, respectively , according to the report .
Although next year will start strong , based on the polling of National Retail Federation members , the rest of the year might be weaker than last year . Journal of Commerce parent company S & P Global in September forecast total US imports to slip 4.4 % in 2025 , excluding the impact of any new tariffs . US retail sales will inch up next year by 1.8 % compared to a 1.1 % expansion in 2025 , according to Fitch ratings .
According to the most recent data available from PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global , US imports climbed 15.3 % in November , the fourteenth consecutive month of year-over-year gains and the sixth straight month of double-digit percentage increases .
November also marked the nineteenth consecutive month that US imports exceeded 2 million TEUs . If the NRF forecasts come to fruition , December imports will break the pandemic-era record of 19 straight months .
A rush to beat tariffs imposed by President-elect Donald
Klaus Vedfelt / Getty Images and bfk92 / Getty Images
6 Journal of Commerce | January 6 , 2025 www . joc . com