Editor ’ s note 2025 Annual Review & Outlook
Ringing in the risk
By Mark Szakonyi
There is little buffer capacity if something goes severely wrong in early 2025 .
The New Year is kicking off with multiple bangs . Fifteen days in , the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) will strike , unless there ’ s a late Christmas miracle or container lines capitulate , knowing that Donald Trump will back labor when he ’ s sworn into office five days later .
Even if a strike at US East and Gulf coast ports lasts just an hour , there will still be modest disruptions . Amid mounting fears of a strike , in the days ahead of the Jan . 15 deadline , truckers will evacuate containers , US Class I railroads will stop accepting exports and marine terminals will no longer accept empty container equipment , as they did before the expiration of the Oct . 1 contract .
That three-day strike reduced effective capacity by tying up ships on the trans-Atlantic and trans- Pacific trades and throwing transshipment hubs out of whack . Rippling through north-south trades , the work disruption also compounded congestion at key ports along the east of coast of South America .
Most US East and Gulf coast ports reduced the strike-associated ship backlogs in several weeks , but a longer work stoppage this time around could challenge even the most efficient marine terminals . There is plenty of cargo coming down the pipe . US retailers aren ’ t expecting to let up on pulling through a surge of imports until early spring at the soonest , according to the latest Global Port Tracker .
Five days after the tentative contract deadline expires , Donald Trump is set to begin his second term and can trigger his threatened US tariffs on Chinese goods on day one by citing security issues . Trump ’ s other threat of a 25 % US tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods shows not even near-shoring is safe from his reach .
Even if Trump holds back on unleashing higher US tariffs on goods from China and other trading partners in his first 90 days in office , the specter that provoked multiple waves of varying degrees of frontloading ahead of the tariffs imposed in his first term will hang over all US trades .
Meanwhile , on Feb . 1 , two new shipping alliances will launch simultaneously . The industry ’ s attention will be focused on the rollout of the Gemini Cooperation , the alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd , as it will be the most ambitious huband-spoke network the industry has seen . Gemini ’ s strategy has been tested using a “ digital twin ” in the hypothetical , but not physical world .
The Premier Alliance will launch its own network on the same day , without former THE Alliance partner Hapag-Lloyd . Overlapping Gemini ’ s hub-and-spoke network will be the more conventional , direct networks of Premier , composed of Ocean Network Express ( ONE ), HMM and Yang
Ming and the OCEAN Alliance , which launches in April . With its strong lead in tonnage , Mediterranean Shipping Co . no longer needs an alliance partner for its February launch but is striking slot-sharing pacts with the Premier alliance and Zim Integrated Shipping Services , nonetheless .
“ While operational disruptions from fleet deployment on [ Gemini ’ s ] routes may not be immediately apparent in the first three to four voyages , I believe port operational capabilities will be tested ,” said analyst Heather Hwang , team leader of market intelligence analysis at South Korea-based LX Pantos .
The concentration of ultra-large container ships at hub ports will require Gemini to tap more feeder vessels than before , which , coupled with potentially higher volumes caused by US tariffs , will challenge transshipment hubs from the onset , Hwang said .
The launch of new alliances will take out a significant amount of capacity , even if for only a few weeks , said Alphaliner senior analyst Jan Tiedemann .
“ Ships will have to be emptied of cargo , filled again , change services , wait for phase-in into their designated new service ,” he said . “ They will miss sailing windows and skip ports to catch up .”
There is little buffer capacity if something goes severely wrong in early 2025 . Just 0.5 % of the fleet was idled as of late November , according to Alphaliner . Through most of 2026 , the analyst forecasts container lines will receive 100,000 to 200,000 TEUs monthly in capacity from shipyards after successfully absorbing new tonnage in 2024 . Carriers have little incentive to start scrapping .
“ In times of frequent trade disruptions , better hold on to the tonnage you have ,” Tiedemann said . “ It might come in handy .”
Whatever the source of disruption , the container lines can be expected to capitalize on the opening to seek higher rates , as they did in the final weeks of December . Carriers usually seek price increases before the lull in shipments due to Lunar New Year celebrations , but they ’ ve been rewarded by pushing harder and faster on those increases , most recently in the wake of Red Sea diversions .
While carriers may seek general rate increases ( GRIs ) and get none or just a portion of the amount sought , they are setting their aims higher . In a small sign of this more aggressive approach to dynamic pricing , no carrier in 2023 was seeking more than $ 1,000 per FEU in terms of early and mid-month GRIs filed with the US Federal Maritime Commission . Now , four of the eight top carriers operating on the trans-Pacific trades are seeking upwards of $ 3,000 per FEU twice a month .
email : mark . szakonyi @ spglobal . com
4 Journal of Commerce | January 6 , 2025 www . joc . com