Maritime 2025 Annual Review & Outlook
Imports through LA-LB port ( pictured ) grew more than 25 % for three straight months in 2024 . Robert V Schwemmer / Shutterstock . com
West Coast ports retake Asia import share amid ILA talks
Market share of US containerized imports from Asia by coast , Jan . -Nov.
100 %
Coastal seesaw
Tariffs , Suez resumption could crimp US West Coast share gains
By Bill Mongelluzzo
A look back : The lengthy and contentious contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) and employers on the East and Gulf coasts drove a large volume of discretionary imports to the West Coast in 2024 . Frontloading of imports continued last fall in anticipation of threatened tariffs under a second Trump administration this year . In the first 11 months of 2024 , West Coast ports handled 59.2 % of US imports from Asia , up from 56.5 % in 2023 , according to PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . The Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma was the first gateway to experience severe congestion last summer due to diversion from Canadian ports , which contended with now-resolved labor issues . The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced a 25 % -plus year-over-year increase in import volumes for three consecutive months ,
The big picture : US West Coast ports lost some of their share of imports from Asia in 2022-23 during the protracted contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and West Coast employers . The tables turned in 2024 , when East and Gulf coast dockworkers engaged in contentious contract negotiations of their own , and discretionary cargo returned to the West Coast . The main challenge facing West Coast ports entering 2025 will be to mitigate the rail container backlogs that inevitably occur during peak periods when import volumes exceed the railroads ’ designed network capacity .
spawning terminal congestion and extended rail container dwell times . However , the BNSF and Union Pacific railroads had worked through those backlogs by year end .
A look ahead : West Coast ports were relatively fluid entering 2025 and have sufficient capacity to handle the lower cargo volumes forecasted for 2025 . When the ILA reaches a contract settlement this year , discretionary cargo is expected to return to the East and Gulf coasts . That means cargo flows should return to the normal seasonal trends throughout the year . The main challenge for West Coast ports will be mitigating peak inland point intermodal ( IPI ) volumes next fall . The industry has come to expect some level of disruptions when IPI traffic surges during peak periods , but port stakeholders learned valuable lessons from the epic meltdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic , and future disruptions should be less intense and shorter than before .
TEU market share
80 %
100 63 600 %
40 %
20 %
0 % L 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 West East Gulf
Source : PIERS , S & P Global © 2024 S & P Global
The next inflection : Whereas 2024 was a banner year for US West Coast ports , the pendulum could swing back to the East and Gulf coast ports in 2025 . If Trump ’ s threatened tariffs on China push even more production to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in 2025 , the Chinadependent West Coast gateways will lose market share to East Coast ports , which are better suited geographically to handle imports from those regions . If and when hostilities in the Red Sea cease and vessels return to the Suez Canal , West Coast ports could lose additional share .
email : bill . mongelluzzo @ spglobal . com
30 Journal of Commerce | January 6 , 2025 www . joc . com