Annual Review & Outlook 2025 Maritime

Restabilized trans-Atlantic facing dual strike , tariff threats

By Greg Knowler

The big picture : After a steep decline in 2023 , westbound trans-Atlantic trade volumes came roaring back in 2024 . Still , the accompanying rise in rates was marginal compared with the huge increases seen in the main trades out of Asia , as excess capacity depressed prices until carriers began shifting vessels to the more lucrative ex-Asia lanes . Going into 2025 , the supply-demand balance appears to have been reasserted , and cargo owners can expect greater rate stability , with more predictable disruption-driven price hikes .

A look back : By the time Auld Lang Syne heralded the start of 2024 , average spot rates from Europe to North America had sunk to record lows of close to $ 500 per FEU , according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta . But after a weak January , US import demand began to pick up , with year-over-year growth recorded in eight of the following nine months on the North Europe – US trade and Mediterranean – US volumes rising in every month of 2024 . Through November , imports from North Europe and the Mediterranean rose 7.7 % and 13.6 %, respectively , from the same 2023 period , according to PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . The rising volume lifted average North Europe – US East Coast spot rates through April , but even with steady demand during the historically slow summer months , excess capacity dragged down pricing . It was only when carriers closed several services and transferred capacity to the more lucrative trades out of Asia and shippers began frontloading cargo in the buildup to the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) strike on the US East and Gulf coasts that rates began to rise again , reaching a 2024 peak of about $ 2,700 per FEU in early October , according to Platts . But even with the removal of 91,100 TEUs in capacity from the trade in the first 10 months of 2024 — an 8.2 % year-over-year drop , according to Alphaliner — that peak was short-lived . By mid-November , average short-term pricing had fallen to $ 2,200 per FEU .

A look ahead : With supply and demand largely in balance , the westbound trans-Atlantic trade lane has returned to its traditionally stable state . But that tranquility is threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump ’ s promise to raise import tariffs , as well as a potential second strike by the ILA . The products moved on the trans-Atlantic are dominated by industrial equipment , vehicles , pharmaceuticals , and wine

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and spirits , limiting the ability for US importers to frontload on a large scale . But with the removal of capacity by the carriers , any advancement of orders to avoid disruption will quickly fill all available space and raise rate levels . And if rising volume meets labor action at US East and Gulf coast terminals , bottlenecks will soon build at the busy import gateways , tying up capacity , extending transit times and exerting additional upward pressure on pricing .

The next inflection : The trans-Atlantic trade over the past few years has seen a disconnect in the traditional supplydemand balance , with excess capacity offsetting rising volume and curbing rates . But carriers have grown adept at flexing capacity to cater to volatility in demand , and with the shifting of vessels to the trades out of Asia and replacement of larger ships with smaller units , cargo owners can expect their fixed-rate commitments to go up in annual contract talks and any disruption on the westbound trade to be quickly reflected on the spot market .

email : greg . knowler @ spglobal . com

Trans-Atlantic imports rise 7.7 % through November

Containerized US imports from North Europe , in laden TEUs , with yoy change

TEU volume

200,000 181,190 10 10 %

150,000 100,000 100,000

50,000

Source : S & P Global

TEU Year-over-year % change

Imports from North Europe grew 7.4 % through October , while volumes from the Mediterranean rose 3.8 %. Steve Allen / Shutterstock . com

20 %

0 % -40% -10%

-20 %

-30 %

-40 %

Year-over-year % change

© 2024 S & P Global

January 6 , 2025 | Journal of Commerce 23