Annual Review & Outlook 2025 Maritime

Tariffs , ILA tension , early Lunar New Year boost Q1 trans-Pacific forecast

By Bill Mongelluzzo

An early and extended peak season pushed trans-Pacific imports up 17.7 % through November . Shutterstock . com

The big picture : The eastbound trans-Pacific rebounded in a big way last year , and although growth is expected to moderate in 2025 , frontloading of spring merchandise ahead of tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump and an early Lunar New Year should keep cargo volumes and spot rates elevated into the first quarter . Carrier on-time performance in the busiest US trade lane continued to languish throughout 2024 , with no noticeable improvements foreseen as geopolitical turmoil continues to disrupt global shipping patterns .

A look back : US importers began to frontload fall and holiday shipments in June , two months earlier than usual , and the peak shipping season in the eastbound trans-Pacific continued through the end of the year , two months later than usual . The extended peak season occurred as importers rushed to get ahead of the initial expiration of the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) contract covering dockworkers up and down the East and Gulf coasts in October , the early Lunar New Year on Jan . 29 , 2025 , and the threat of tariffs by the incoming Trump administration . As a result , US imports from Asia spiked 17.7 % in the first 11 months of the year , according to PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . In turn , spot rates increased to near-pandemic levels and remained elevated through November and into December . Shortterm pricing from Asia to the US West Coast averaged $ 4,626 per FEU through mid-December , more than triple the average rate of $ 1,519 per FEU recorded for the full year in 2023 , according to Platts , also part of S & P Global .

US imports from Asia grow for 14th straight month in November

Containerized US imports from Asia , in laden TEUs , with year-over-year change

TEU volume

1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000

1,000,000

1,000,000 800,000

600,000 400,000 200,000

Source : S & P Global

www . joc . com

TEU Year-over-year % change

40 % 30 % 20 %

10 % 100 % 0 %

-10 % -20 % -30 % -40 %

Year-over-year % change

© 2024 S & P Global

And with inflation steadily declining and interest rates edging lower following rate cuts by the Federal Reserve , consumer demand was expected to remain at record levels through the end of the year .

A look ahead : Retailers and other importers entered the new year facing the triple threat of a possible second strike by the ILA , with its extended contract set to expire on Jan . 15 ; damaging tariffs on China , Mexico and Canada threatened by the new administration ; and the early start to Lunar New Year , when many factories in Asia close down for a few weeks . These events , which prompted continued frontloading of imports , were projected to keep import volumes elevated at least through January . According to a December forecast from the National Retail Federation , US imports will rise 12 % year over year in January , fall 4.1 % in February as factories in Asia close for Lunar New Year , and jump 12.7 % in March , when factories return to full production . Carriers and their customers anticipate that the hostilities in the Red Sea that have steered shipping away from the Suez Canal to the much longer and costlier route around the southern tip of Africa for more than a year will continue for some time to come , and they have adjusted their supply chains accordingly .

The next inflection : The big unknown for the trans-Pacific in 2025 is Trump ’ s threatened tariffs , which are steeped in uncertainties . Will there be an across-the-board tariff on US imports from all countries , and even higher tariffs on imports from key trading partners such as China , Mexico and Canada ? Will the tariffs become effective on day one of the new administration , or will they be phased in over a period of several months ? Most retailers say they have frontloaded sufficient inventory to get them through the first quarter , but planning import volumes and supply chains beyond that point remains problematic .

email : bill . mongelluzzo @ spglobal . com

January 6 , 2025 | Journal of Commerce 21