Cover Story
2025 Annual Review & Outlook
Double-digit US import growth streak continues in November
Total containerized US imports , in laden TEUs , with year-over-year change
TEU volume
30 %
2,500,000
2,000,000 1,835,238 10 10 %
1,500,000 1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
20 %
-40 0 % % -10 % -20 % -30 %
Year-over-year % change
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan
L 2023
|
Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2024 |
Apr |
Jul
Sep ,
Oct 2024
|
-40 %
TEU Year-over-year % change
Source : S & P Global
© 2024 S & P Global
environment where “ optimism is present , but caution prevails ,” BlueGrace said .
That caution may be warranted when it comes to freight driven by US manufacturing . US production continued to contract in Decembe , S & P Global said in its Dec . 17 US manufacturing purchasing managers ’ index ( PMI ) report .
“ To really say that the market is turned , we ’ re going to have to see manufacturing come back ,” said Vince Paperiello , senior vice president of intermodal at STG Logistics . “ We ’ re going to have to see housing starts coming back .”
email : bill . cassidy @ spglobal . com
It ’ s unclear when or how much the US economy and freight demand — which , as the past two years have demonstrated , are not always closely linked — will strengthen in 2025 . The inflation rate has slowed , but consumer prices and home mortgage rates remain comparatively high .
Mortgage rates are not linked directly to the US federal funds rate , but to the 10-year US Treasury bonds . Cuts to the funds rate by the US Federal Reserve don ’ t immediately move those bonds . Still , lower mortgage rates are seen as a much-needed catalyst for freight volumes .
Logistics executives hope freight demand will increase even if the overall economy slows , as predicted . The inverse has taken place over the past two and a half years , as the US economy avoided a recession while experiencing a shortfall in freight demand .
S & P Global forecasts US real GDP expansion will drop from 2.7 % in 2024 to 2.1 % in 2025 . Encouragingly , shipper sentiment is showing signs of improving , boding well for 2025 volumes , according to the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index .
The percentage of shippers surveyed by BlueGrace that had a positive view of revenue growth for the next quarter increased from 66 % to 68 % for the first quarter of 2025 . More importantly , the share of respondents with a negative view of revenue growth dropped from 15 % in the previous survey to 9 %. The data points to a complex
Images on this spread : Background : Klaus Vedfelt / Getty Images and vehicles : Shutterstock . com
10 Journal of Commerce | January 6 , 2025 www . joc . com