As housing affordability continues to be a headline issue across the country, the Denver metro area stands out one of the few markets in which rents have experienced an extended period of stabilization and, most recently, they’ ve fallen. This positive development for renters is now at risk.
Many are surprised to learn that the average monthly rent in metro Denver($ 1,816) was $ 95 cheaper in September than a year earlier, a decrease of 5 %. More striking, today’ s average rents are $ 25 lower than they were in June 2022, over three years ago.
The further one looks back, the more remarkable the trend in affordability. Since 2016, household income in the metro area has grown by over 6.4 % annually. While the price of many other goods and services consumers buy have surged, average rents grew by just 4.5 % per year over the same period.
Adjusting for inflation( i. e., the general increase in prices of ordinary goods and services), which has run about 3.4 % per year over the last decade, rents in Metro Denver today are almost exactly where they were ten years ago.
Metro Denver’ s resistance to escalating rents didn ' t happen because of a new law or regulation. It happened because of the most basic rule in economics: supply and demand.
Since 2021, Denver has completed and delivered 70,000 apartments, an 18 % increase in total inventory, and rents have responded accordingly.
While welcomed by the city’ s residents, this progress is now at risk. A " supply cliff " is approaching, caused largely by well-meaning but harmful policies.
HOUSING IS A GAME OF MUSICAL CHAIRS
The housing market is like a game of musical chairs. The level of frenzy that occurs when the music stops depends on how many chairs are available relative to the number of players.
The fewer the chairs, the more intense the competition for available seats; when it comes to housing, that competition results in feverish bidding that drives up rents. When the supply of chairs is abundant, however, the frenzy abruptly ends. Players can relax and even pick and choose their preferred seat.
An abundance of rental housing supply is exactly what Denver renters enjoy today. How long that lasts depends on supply and demand going forward.
On the demand side, the Colorado State Demography Office reports that there are currently 80,202 eighteen-year-olds in Colorado, many of whom
LONG-TERM AVERAGE RENT GROWTH IS BELOW INFLATION www. aamdhq. org TRENDS JANUARY 2026 | 23