GENERAL NEWS
IMF flags risks to global growth outlook
At the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting in Asheville, North Carolina( USA), recently, Kristalina Georgieva( Managing Director, International Monetary Fund), stressed the importance of international cooperation. This, she said, helps countries to manage debt challenges, limit spillovers and address global imbalances.
“ Since April, the global growth outlook for 2026 has firmed at around three percent. The global economy has absorbed the impact of the energy supply shock better than expected, through using oil and gas reserves, new sources of energy and demand management measures. Surging AI investment— including in power projects to satisfy energy needs— is driving growth, in the U. S., in particular, and other economies integrated into the AI value chain, such as [ South ] Korea,” she said.
“ However, behind the averages there is a significant divergence in economic fortunes and risks to the outlook remain high. First, the energy shock is not over. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, strategic oil and gas reserves will need restocking, AI drives up energy demand and( in the northern hemisphere) winter is coming.
Second, public debt— at almost 100 per cent of GDP worldwide— now exceeds its post-World War II highs and is set to climb further. Third, the disinflation process has stalled in many countries. Mounting fiscal pressures are pushing core bond yields upward and the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy worries markets. Last, but not least, the future impact of AI on productivity and financial stability is dogged by unknowns,” she warned.
Policy priorities, she confirmed, are clear.“ Central banks must focus on their price stability mandate. Fiscal authorities must hammer out credible medium-term consolidation plans. Structural policies should concentrate on cutting red tape and removing self-inflicted barriers to growth— because stronger potential growth would help address the fiscal problem, and addressing the fiscal problem would help lift growth prospects,” she explained.
She highlighted debt challenges in developing countries, along with the
Kristalina Georgieva( Managing Director, International Monetary Fund). increase in global interest rates, and excess global imbalances in economies.
“ Excess imbalances in major economies can signal uneven growth patterns and macro-financial vulnerabilities. They can result in cross-border spillovers, trade tensions and economic fragmentation,” she added.
“ Since macroeconomic factors are the main drivers of imbalances, sustained rebalancing requires policy action in both surplus and deficit countries. In surplus economies, market-oriented structural reforms can boost domestic consumption, promote investment and lift growth prospects. In deficit economies, appropriate fiscal consolidation can increase savings and help rebuild fiscal buffers. Simultaneous— mutually reinforcing— policies across major economies would yield the best outcomes, including for growth,” she concluded. n
www
. imf. org
Metal forming outlook better in August
Metal forming manufacturers expressed a more optimistic economic outlook in August, anticipating improvement in economic activity and stronger incoming orders over the next three months, according to the August 2026‘ Precision Metalforming Association( PMA) Business Conditions Report’. Prepared monthly, PMA’ s report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing, sampling 86 metal forming companies in the United States and Canada. PMA is the full-service trade association representing the US $ 137-billion metal forming industry of North America— the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slideforming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Over 900 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry.
Mark Getsay, Managing Director, PMA.
PMA’ s August report shows that 33 % of manufacturers surveyed expect an increase in general economic activity in the next three months( up from 24 % in July), 61 % predict no change in activity( compared to 65 % in July) and 6 % forecast a decrease in activity( compared to 11 % in July).
“ The August report also shows that metal formers anticipate stronger incoming orders over the next three months, with 49 % of survey respondents expecting an increase in orders( up from 34 % in July), 36 % predicting no change in orders( compared to 48 % in July) and 15 % forecasting a decrease in orders( down from 18 % in July),” said the association.
Current average daily shipping levels rose slightly in August, with 47 % of survey participants reporting an increase in current average daily shipping levels( up from 40 % in July), 34 % reporting no change and 19 % reporting a decrease( compared to 18 % in July).
Workforce indicators remained steady in August, as 48 % of companies are expanding their workforce, up from 46 % in July, while 5 % reported having workers on short time or layoff( down from 6 %). However, lead times lengthened in August, with 28 % of respondents reporting longer lead times, up from 20 % in July.
“ While metal formers expressed growing caution in July, this month’ s survey reflects a notable improvement in sentiment,” said Mark Getsay, PMA’ s managing director.“ The increase in companies expecting stronger economic activity and higher order volumes is an encouraging sign. While manufacturers continue to navigate supply-chain challenges and READ policy uncertainty, this month’ s survey points to growing optimism heading REPORT into Autumn.” n
www. pma. org
6 | ismr. net | ISMR September 2026