REGIONAL REPORT
Image: Milard Emmanuel( Unsplash).
tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far. Concerns about future tariffs led to a strong surge in exports to the U. S. in the first quarter of the year. This front-loading helped to support activity in Europe and Asia,” outlined Pierre- Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, IMF.
“ While global inflation continues to decline, the latest price data suggests that inflation pressures are building gradually in the U. S. Overall, U. S. import prices in dollars have remained largely unchanged or even increased this year, suggesting that the cost of tariffs will be borne by U. S. retailers, and eventually customers, as firms start to pass through higher costs into their prices,” he added.
Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
The National Association of Manufacturers( NAM)‘ Q2 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey’ revealed that optimism among manufacturers across the United States has dropped sharply.
“ Only 55.4 % of respondents report a positive outlook for their companies— a nearly 15-percentage-point drop from Q1 and the lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q2 of 2020. Trade uncertainty remained the top business concern for the second consecutive quarter, cited by 77.0 % of respondents, followed by increased raw material costs( 66.1 %) and rising health care / insurance costs( 60.0 %). The survey finds that 85.4 % of manufacturers believe Congress should preserve pro-growth tax policies in response to trade uncertainty,” said the association.
The NAM conducted the Q2 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey from 8-27 May 2025.
Additional findings from the survey included:
■ Of the manufacturers surveyed, 89 % said that the cost of doing business has increased due to tariffs imposed this year. The average stated cost increase is 7.7 %.
Image: Luke Stackpoole( Unsplash).
Metal forming business conditions
Metal forming manufacturers are showing signs of improved confidence in near-term economic conditions, according to the July 2025 Precision Metalforming Association( PMA) Business Conditions Report. Prepared monthly, PMA’ s report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing, sampling 95 metal forming companies in the United States and Canada.
PMA’ s July report shows that 27 % of surveyed manufacturers anticipate an increase in general economic activity in the next three months( up from 24 % in June and only 16 % in May), 54 % predict no change in activity( compared to 48 % in June) and 19 % expect a decrease in activity( an improvement from 28 % in June and 38 % in
May). Metal formers also predict an increase in incoming orders in the next three months, with 36 % of survey respondents anticipating an increase( compared to 24 % in June), 46 % expecting no change( compared to 47 % in June) and 18 % forecasting a decrease in orders( down from 29 % reported in June).
Current average daily shipping levels remained relatively steady in July, with 50 % reporting no change in shipping orders( compared to 42 % in June), 23 % reporting an increase in shipping levels( compared to 29 % in June) and 27 % reporting a decrease in levels( compared to 29 % in June). The survey also showed that only 8 % of respondents had workers on short time or layoff in July( down from 13 % in June), while 36 % are currently expanding their workforce( compared to 35 % in June). Eighteen per cent of respondents reported an increase in lead times in July, up from 13 % in June.
“ Our latest Business Conditions Report shows more optimism over economic conditions among PMA members,” said PMA President, David Klotz.
“ Manufacturers welcomed the signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act( OBBBA) on 4 July 2025. The law brings long-sought tax certainty and includes important pro-manufacturing provisions advocated for by PMA’ s government affairs committee and our One Voice advocacy team in Washington, D. C.— such as restoring 100 % bonus depreciation, allowing full and immediate expensing of R & D activities, and making permanent the 20 % passthrough deduction under Section 199A, which directly benefits two-thirds of our members. However, manufacturers still face challenges from trade uncertainty and continue to advocate for trade policies that support their global competitiveness and help drive job creation.”
PMA is the full-service trade association representing the US $ 137-billion metal forming industry of North America— the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating, spinning, slide forming and roll forming technologies, and other value-added processes. Over 900 member companies also include suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry.
Contract manufacturing in North America
■ Of companies for which tariffs are applicable, 61.8 % of respondents said that their export opportunities have been impacted.
■ When asked what manufacturers expect to happen with raw material prices and other input costs, respondents expect those costs to increase 5.8 % on average, the highest rate of increase since Q2 2022 when the inflation rate was between 8 % and 9 %.
According to a December 2024 report by analyst Grand View Research, the North America contract manufacturing services market size was estimated at US $ 64.5 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6.8 % from 2025 to 2030.
“ Stringent quality control standards and the increasing demand for customised products have driven industries in North America to rely heavily on contract manufacturing services. These services enable companies to streamline production processes, reduce costs and
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