Image : Milard Emmanuel ( Unsplash ).
MADE IN THE USA
We highlight the manufacturing outlook as well as industrial , monetary and fiscal policy in the United States .
Image : Nik Shuliahin ( Unsplash ).
“ Policy restraint is expected to continue to slow the economy in 2023 with a modest pick-up in momentum later in 2024 .”
According to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ), the U . S . economy has proved resilient in the face of significant tightening of both fiscal and monetary policy in 2022 .
“ Consumer demand has held up particularly well , boosted initially by a drawdown of pent-up savings and , more
recently , by solid growth in real disposable incomes . Policy restraint is expected to continue to slow the economy in 2023 with a modest pick-up in momentum later in 2024 . Unemployment is expected to rise slowly to close to 4½ percent by end-2024 ,” it reported on 15 June 2023 , as part of its 2023 Article IV Consultation .
“ Goods inflation has softened as supply-chain constraints have been resolved and consumer demand has rotated away from goods and towards services . A rapid upswing in goods prices took hold in 2021 . Since mid-2022 , however , year-on-year goods inflation has been falling ( although this downward trend was interrupted in March ),” it continued .
It highlighted the feed through to goods prices from lower energy and shipping costs . Consumer demand in the U . S . has rotated away from goods to services , it added ( resulting in a stagnant demand for goods ). It confirmed that supply-chain disruptions have been steadily resolved and goods prices have , as in past cycles , been relatively little affected by rising wages and tight labour market conditions .
Manufacturers ’ outlook survey
The National Association of Manufacturers ( NAM ) Q2 2023 Manufacturers ’ Outlook Survey outlined manufacturers ’ mounting concerns over the onslaught of unbalanced federal regulations and “ the threat posed to sustaining manufacturing investment , job creation and wage growth .”
The NAM conducted the survey from 18 May to 1 June 2023 . Its key findings are listed below :
1 . Only 67 % of manufacturers are positive about their own company ’ s outlook . This is down from 74.7 % in Q1 , making it the lowest since Q3 2020 and , before the pandemic , the lowest since Q3 2019 .
2 . If the regulatory burden on manufacturers decreased , 65 % of manufacturers would purchase more capital equipment , and more than 46 % would increase compensation .
3 . More than 63 % of manufacturers report spending more than 2,000 hours per year complying with federal regulations . 4 . If Congress were to enact comprehensive permitting reform , simplifying and speeding up the approval process for new projects ,
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