GENERAL NEWS
Building economic bridges
The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has highlighted rising economic fragmentation , slowing growth and high inflation . In the run-up to the G20 meeting , it urged “ agile multilateral support is vital to tackle common challenges posed by debt vulnerabilities , climate change and limited concessional financing — especially for countries hit by shocks not of their making .”
In April , the IMF projected global growth at 2.8 per cent in 2023 , down from 3.4 percent in 2022 . The bulk of it , over 70 per cent , is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region .
“ Yet , recent high frequency indicators paint a mixed picture : weakness in manufacturing contrasts with resilience in
services across the G20 countries and strong labour markets in advanced economies . At the same time , financial fragilities uncovered by tight monetary policy require careful management , particularly as restoring price stability remains a priority . Global headline inflation seems to have peaked , and core inflation has eased somewhat , particularly in India . But in most G20 countries , especially advanced economies , inflation remains well above central banks ’ targets ,” commented Kristalina Georgieva , Managing Director , IMF .
“ It is vital to stay the course on monetary policy until inflation is durably brought down to target , while closely monitoring financial sector risks . Here , clear central bank communication and financial sector oversight
Kristalina Georgieva , Managing Director , IMF .
are needed to reduce the risk of disruptive shifts in financial conditions . Fiscal policy must also play its part ,” she added .
Consolidation efforts should also protect growth-enhancing investments , where space allows , she urged . The IMF forecast for global growth over the medium-term is around 3 per cent . n
Metalforming business conditions for USA / Canada
Metalforming companies anticipate little change in business conditions during the next three months , according to the June 2023 Precision Metalforming Association ( PMA ) Business Conditions Report . Prepared monthly , the report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing , sampling 96 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada .
PMA ’ s June report shows that 58 % of metalforming companies expect no change in general economic activity in the next three months ( compared to 54 % in May ), 32 % predict a decrease in activity ( down from 35 % in May ) and only 10 % forecast an increase in activity ( compared to 11 % in May ).
There also was little change in metalformers ’ anticipation of incoming orders , with 20 % of survey respondents expecting an increase in orders during the next three months ( compared to 21 % in May ), 44 % predicting no change ( compared to 45 %) and 36 % forecasting a decrease in orders ( up from 34 % in May ).
However , current average daily shipping levels rebounded in June . Twenty-seven percent of responding companies reported an increase in shipping levels ( up from 15 % in May ), 52 % reported no change ( compared to 49 %) and 21 % reported a decrease ( down from 36 % in May ).
“ Metalforming manufacturers continue to persevere despite rising costs , supply-chain disruptions and the ongoing challenge to find workers ,” said PMA President , David Klotz . “ Our members are fighting for business every day against global competitors . PMA continues to urge Congress to support domestic manufacturing through funding workforce development programmes , instituting trade policies that take into consideration consuming industries and addressing important tax policies such as reinstating R & D expensing . In a recent survey of manufacturers that included our members , 27 % reported that they will reduce their
R & D activities if Congress does not fix this .”
Lead times remained steady in June , with only 10 % of metalforming companies reporting an increase in lead times ( compared to 11 % in May ). Ten per cent of companies had a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff in June ( up from 7 % in May ), while 46 % of companies are currently expanding their workforce ( compared to 40 % in May ).
PMA is the full-service trade association representing the US $ 137-billion metalforming industry of North America . Its more than 900 member companies also include suppliers of equipment , materials and services to the industry . n
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Italian machinetool orders fall
In the second quarter of 2023 , the index of machine-tool orders processed by UCIMU- SISTEMI PER PRODURRE ( the Italian machine tools , robots and automation systems manufacturers ’ association ) registered a 21.8 % fall compared to the period April-June 2022 .
“ This outcome was due to the reduction in order intake , registered by manufacturers , in overseas and domestic markets . Orders from abroad dropped by 10.5 % compared to the same period in the previous year ,” explained the association .
On the domestic front , collected orders registered a 38.3 % decrease . On a halfyearly basis , order collection dropped by 23 % compared to the first six months of 2022 . Domestic orders decreased by 29.9 % and overseas orders recorded an 18.2 % downturn .
Barbara Colombo , the association ’ s President , confirmed : “ The data just processed by our Economic Studies Department & Business Culture Centre confirm the first signs of a slowdown , which we have detected over the last few months and had already reported at the Shareholders ’ Meeting in early July .”
She cited the uncertain conditions in which Italian manufacturers are operating and urged the Italian government to strengthen the Transition Plan 4.0 as the industry undergoes digital transition . She also called for a modular system of tax incentives ( so digitalisation also enables sustainability ). n
6 | ismr . net | ISMR September 2023