INDUSTRY REPORT
Solar PV is now consistently cheaper than new coal- or gasfired power plants in most countries , and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen
Renewables take starring roles in all the IEA report ’ s scenarios , with solar as centre stage . Supportive policies and maturing technologies are enabling very cheap access to capital in leading markets . Solar PV is now consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries , and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen . In the Stated Policies Scenario , renewables meet 80 % of global electricity demand growth over the next decade . Hydropower remains the largest renewable source , but solar is the main source of growth , followed by onshore and offshore wind .
“ I see solar becoming the new king of the world ’ s electricity markets . Based on today ’ s policy settings , it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022 ,” said Dr Fatih Birol , the IEA Executive Director . “ If governments and investors step up their clean energy efforts in line with our Sustainable Development Scenario , the growth of both solar and wind would be even more spectacular – and hugely encouraging for overcoming the world ’ s climate challenge .”
The WEO-2020 shows that strong growth of renewables needs to be paired with robust investment in electricity grids . Without enough investment , grids will prove to be a weak link in the transformation of the power sector , with implications for the reliability and security of electricity supply .
Fossil fuels face varying challenges . Coal demand does not return to pre-crisis levels in the Stated Policies Scenario , with its share in the 2040 energy mix falling below 20 % for the first time since the Industrial Revolution . But demand for natural gas grows significantly , mainly in Asia , while oil remains vulnerable to the major economic uncertainties resulting from the pandemic .
“ The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade ,” Dr Birol said . “ But without a large shift in government policies , there is no sign of a rapid decline .
Solar panels for energy capture . Credit : Andreas Gulckhorn ( Unsplash ).
Credit : Brandon Morgan ( Unsplash ).
Based on today ’ s policy settings , a global economic rebound would soon push oil demand back to precrisis levels .”
Clean energy investment
The worst effects of the crisis are felt among the most vulnerable . The pandemic has reversed several years of declines in the number of people in Sub- Saharan Africa without access to electricity . And a rise in poverty levels may have made basic electricity services unaffordable for more than 100 million people worldwide who had electricity connections .
According to the World Energy Outlook report , global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008- 2009 , but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery . A step-change in clean energy investment offers a way to boost economic growth , create jobs and reduce emissions . This approach has not yet featured prominently in plans proposed to date , except in the European Union , the United Kingdom , Canada , Korea , New Zealand and a handful of other countries .
In the Sustainable Development Scenario , which shows how to put the world on track to achieving sustainable energy objectives in full , the complete implementation of the IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan moves the global energy economy onto a different post-crisis path . As well as rapid growth of solar , wind and energy efficiency technologies , the next ten years would see a major
scaling-up of hydrogen and
The era of global oil demand growth carbon capture , utilisation and will come to an end in the next decade storage , and new momentum
behind nuclear power .
“ Despite a record drop in global emissions this year , the world is far from doing enough to put them into decisive decline . The economic downturn has temporarily suppressed emissions , but low economic growth is not a low-emissions strategy – it is a strategy that would only serve to further impoverish the world ’ s most vulnerable populations ,” said Dr Birol . “ Only faster structural changes to the way we produce and consume energy can break the emissions trend for good . Governments have the capacity and the responsibility to take decisive actions to accelerate clean energy transitions and put the world on a path to reaching our climate goals , including net-zero emissions .”
A significant part of those efforts would have to focus on reducing emissions from existing energy infrastructure – such as coal plants , steel mills and cement factories . Otherwise , international climate goals will be pushed out of reach , regardless of actions in other areas . Detailed new analysis in the WEO- 2020 shows that if today ’ s energy infrastructure continues to
24 | sheetmetalplus . com | ISMR September 2021