ISMR November 2024 | Page 67

REGIONAL REPORT

An eye on security
Crime in Latin America is a major challenge to economic development , with security being a major concern for households in the region . Violent crime and insecurity remain major barriers to prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean ( LAC ).
With just eight per cent of the global population , LAC accounts for one third of the world ’ s homicides . Building on existing literature , an IMF departmental paper published on 11 November 2024 aims to support economic policymakers and development partners by exploring the interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic outcomes , with emphasis on the relationship between violent crime and growth , the business climate and public finances .
“ The analysis shows that national-level crime indicators mask huge internal disparities , and that municipalities with ten per cent higher
homicide rates have lower economic activity by around four per cent . The paper develops an innovative measure of insecurity — the share of crime-related news — and shows its association with lower industrial production . Using firm-level data , it also estimates that the direct costs of crime , for firms , are around seven per cent of annual sales , and these are much higher when gangs and drug-trafficking organisations are present ,” commented the IMF Paper .
“ Violent crime rises with macroeconomic instability , inequality and governance problems . Using a large cross-country panel , the analysis finds that homicides increase when a country is affected by negative growth , high inflation or a worsening of inequality . Victimisation surveys indicate that where populations are concerned with the rule of law —
Digital technologies and artificial intelligence ( AI ) may hold significant potential to enhance productivity in the formal sector impunity and police corruption — only one in five victims file their case with the police . Lack of trust and crime can be mutually reinforcing ,” it continued .
“ Finally , the paper documents the fiscal burden of security provision and finds that spending tends to be inelastic to crime and that spending efficiency could be improved . The paper concludes with policy lessons and areas for additional collaboration between national authorities , international partners and key stakeholders . These focus on data collection and analysis , economic policies that may address the root causes and manifestations of crime , strengthening rule of law institutions , and intensifying regional exchanges on security and public finance issues ,” it concluded . n
Image : Shutterstock . com .

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