AN EYE ON MENA
We highlight new market analysis and economic projections for the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region .
All Images : Shutterstock . com , unless otherwise stated .
“ The MENA region is grappling with regional conflicts , subdued oil prices , tight global financial conditions and high inflation .”
The Middle East and Northern Africa ( MENA ) region faces challenges and opportunities to deliver progress for its people . The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) estimated , earlier this year , that the region would grow by 2.9 % this year . Yet this growth underscores great contrasts — with higher energy prices post-pandemic being a boom to the Gulf region while conflict-affected countries ( such as Yemen , Sudan , Lebanon and even Iraq ) continue to struggle and many others ( like Egypt , Jordan and Tunisia ) are grappling with mounting debt . The region overall faces major challenges to achieve eight out of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 .
MENA countries include Algeria ; Djibouti ; Bahrain ; Egypt ; Iran ; Iraq ; Israel ; Jordan ; Kuwait ; Lebanon ; Libya ; Morocco ; Oman ; Qatar ; Saudi Arabia ; Syria ; Tunisia ; United Arab Emirates and Yemen . The region is typically considered to include around 19 countries , including many OPEC nations , but the definition can be stretched to include up to 24 . It accounts for around 60 % of the world ’ s oil reserves , and 45 % of the world ’ s natural gas reserves .
According to the World Bank ’ s Autumn 2023 Regional Economic Update for the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region , the growth of economies in the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) is expected to fall sharply this year . The region ’ s gross domestic product ( GDP ) is forecast to fall to 1.9 % in 2023 from 6 % in 2022 , due to oil production cuts amidst subdued oil prices , tight global financial conditions and high inflation , according to the latest issue of the World Bank MENA Economic Update ( MEU ).
World Bank MENA Economic Update
The World Bank MENA Economic Update ( MEU ) report , entitled “ Balancing Act : Jobs and Wages in the Middle East and North Africa When Crises Hit ,” says that the decline in growth in MENA this year is expected to be more pronounced in the oil-exporting countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC ). Real GDP growth in these countries is forecast at 1 % in 2023 , down from 7.3 % in 2022 as a result of lower oil production and reduced oil prices .
In developing oil-exporting countries , growth is forecast to decline from 4.3 % in 2022 to 2.4 % in 2023 . Among the oil-importing countries in MENA , the tightening of global financial conditions and high inflation continue to constrain economic activity . Growth there is projected at 3.6 % in 2023 , down from 4.9 % in 2022 . These results signal the end of the “ tale of two MENAs ” from 2022 , in which the region ’ s oil-exporters were growing much faster than the oil importers .
“ Improvements in livelihoods is best shown by changes in per capita income . By this measure , growth across the region is forecast to decrease from 4.3 % in 2022 to 0.4 % in 2023 . By the end of 2023 , only 8 of 15 MENA economies will have returned to pre-pandemic , real GDP per capita levels ,” said the World Bank .
40 | ismr . net | ISMR November 2023