GENERAL NEWS
Middle East war sparks energy price surge
Energy prices are projected to surge by 24 % this year as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group’ s latest‘ Commodity Markets Outlook’. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16 % in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals. The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development, the analysis indicates.
Indermit Gill.
“ Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35 % of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about ten million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50 % higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average US $ 86 per barrel in 2026, up sharply from US $ 69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026,” said the World Bank.
“ The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” added Indermit Gill, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, World Bank Group.“ The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens.”
“ Prices for base metals, including aluminium, copper and tin, are also expected to reach all-time highs, reflecting strong demand relating to industries including data centres, electric vehicles and renewable energy. Precious metals continue to break price and volatility records, with average prices forecast to increase 42 % in 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty fuels demand for
safe-haven assets,” highlighted the World Bank analysis.
“ Rising commodity prices caused by these shocks will increase inflation and dampen growth worldwide. In developing economies, inflation is now projected to average 5.1 % in 2026 under the baseline assumptions. Growth in developing economies will also deteriorate as higher prices for essentials weigh on incomes and exports from the Middle East face sharp curbs. Developing economies are expected to grow by 3.6 % in 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since January. Economies directly impacted by conflict will be hardest hit, and 70 % of commodity importers and more than 60 % of commodity exporters worldwide could see weaker growth than was projected in January,” added the World Bank.
The bank also cautioned that commodity prices READ could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war REPORT last longer than projected. n
www
. worldbank. org
Public ownership possible for British Steel
British Steel could be back in UK government hands( for the first time since being sold off in 1988), thanks to powers that will be included in new legislation set out in the Kings Speech on 13 May 2026.
“ The new powers would be subject to public interest tests, and if used to nationalise British Steel, they would boost national security while giving stability to workers at Scunthorpe, and British Steel’ s suppliers and customers,” said the UK government. The public interest test considers factors including national security, maintaining critical national infrastructure and supporting the economy.
The UK Prime Minister, Rt. Hon. Sir Keir Starmer, announced the new legislation in a speech on 11 May 2026, where he set out his plan to boost the UK’ s sovereign capabilities, protect British industry and prioritise British jobs and industrial communities. The government intervened at British Steel in April 2025 under the Steel Industry( Special Measures) Act to ensure uninterrupted steel
Sir Keir Starmer, UK PM. production and to avoid the sudden closure of the blast furnaces, which would have disrupted supply chains and risked thousands of jobs. Since then, the UK government has been in discussions with British Steel’ s owner to find a solution for the business on acceptable terms.
“ It has not been possible to agree a commercial sale with the current owner, and government does not believe an agreement could be reached which would deliver acceptable value for money for taxpayers. The government believes that introducing legislation to provide a route to public ownership is the appropriate next step, while recognising that any decision to use the powers in the Bill would be subject to the Bill’ s public interest test being met,” it said.
The announcement on 11 May 2026 followed the launch of the UK government’ s Steel Strategy in March, which set out its long‐term plan to revitalise the UK steel sector and bolster economic resilience by meeting up to 50 per cent of UK steel demand domestically.
UK Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, said:“ Strong domestic steel production is vital for our economy, and this legislation would allow us to ensure stability for British Steel’ s workers, suppliers and customers and avoid damaging disruption to crucial supply chains, while we consider options for the site’ s future.”
Any decision to bring British Steel into public ownership would only be taken after the Bill receives Royal Assent, and if the public interest test set out in the legislation is met.
British Steel is one of the leading steel manufacturers in Europe, producing up to three million tonnes of steel products every year. It has manufacturing facilities across the UK and Europe. n
www. britishsteel. co. uk
6 | ismr. net | ISMR May 2026