REGIONAL REPORT deficit and public debt are projected to reach seven per cent and 59 per cent of GDP, respectively. Poland has the second largest fiscal deficit in Europe this year, even though the output gap is largely closed. The widening of the fiscal deficit since 2021 solely reflects a substantial increase in expenditures. Spending now matches levels in advanced European economies— despite differences in composition— while revenues remain closer to levels seen in Central and Eastern Europe,” it continued.
“ Disinflation is on track helping to support monetary policy normalisation. Headline and core inflation returned to the target, driven by goods, while services inflation has remained elevated. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored in consumer and producer surveys. With this progress in disinflation, the National Bank of Poland( NBP) has gradually reduced policy rates by 175 bps to four per cent in 2025. The gradual monetary easing has supported credit recovery with banks remaining well capitalised, liquid and profitable, while non-performing loans are declining,” it added.
The IMF concluded that Poland’ s near-term outlook is favourable, with growth projected to accelerate to 3.5 per cent in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in EU fund execution and monetary easing. Inflation has declined into the target range, and the output gap is expected to close in 2026.
“ Nonetheless, risks remain elevated, including fiscal vulnerabilities, declining price competitiveness, global trade developments and regional security concerns. Staff assesses the external position in 2025 to be broadly in line with the levels implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. Over time, growth is expected to moderate as EU-financed investment wanes and fiscal consolidation continues,” cautioned the IMF.
An eye on productivity
Stabilising public debt, said the IMF, should be a key priority. It highlighted that structural reforms at both national and EU levels are critical to sustaining convergence.
“ Poland’ s labour productivity growth remains strong, but innovation lags and demographic pressures are mounting. Staff recommends measures to enhance labour mobility, digital skills and participation, including gradual increases in the retirement age and better integration of migrant workers. Capital market reforms should improve household returns and expand firm financing. Deeper EU integration— especially in energy and capital markets— will support productivity and resilience. While Poland has made progress on decarbonisation, further efforts are needed to meet climate targets and preserve competitiveness,” concluded the IMF.
On 12 March 2026, the World Bank commented in its latest EU Regular Economic Report that Poland could“ raise labour productivity by up to 10 to 15 per cent through wider adoption of digital technologies, particularly software and AI-enabled tools.” With the EU economy expanding at roughly one per cent annually, gains of that scale could boost growth, raise wages and help make jobs more resilient.
“ Faster and broader adoption of new technologies— especially among small and medium-sized enterprises— would help accelerate growth and strengthen competitiveness,” it said.“ Sustaining convergence will increasingly depend upon productivity growth— driven by innovation, faster digital adoption and firms moving up the value chain to create higher-value jobs.”
The OECD( Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) also highlighted the factors needed to sustain growth in its April 2026 report on Poland.
“ To sustain growth, Poland will need to counter the headwinds of
Sustaining convergence will increasingly depend upon productivity growth— driven by innovation, faster digital adoption and firms moving up the value chain to create higher-value jobs
Image: Shutterstock. com. population ageing by improving health outcomes, enhancing the skills of the working-age population and increasing further female employment. Strengthening competition in services, management of state-owned enterprises and insolvency regime can add a boost to business growth,” it said.
Metal fabrication market
A view of Warsaw, Poland.
This March’ s Industrial Spring manufacturing event in Kielce, Poland, attracted 24,000 participants and over 700 exhibitors, co-exhibitors and represented companies from 18 countries. The event brought together a range of exhibitions dedicated to metalworking; tool technologies; industrial automation; welding; lasers; 3D printing and modern solutions for industry. For the full show report, see page 20 of this issue.
According to analyst 6W Research, Poland’ s metal fabrication market is expanding as demand grows for fabricated metal components in construction, automotive and industrial sectors. Metal fabrication includes processes such as cutting, welding and forming, and the market benefits from advances in automation and precision technologies.
In its‘ Metal Fabrication Market( 2026-2032)’ report, the analyst highlights increasing demand for custom metal products and components in Poland. Advances in fabrication technologies and the need for high-quality, precise metal parts drive growth of the market.
“ The metal fabrication market in Poland faces challenges related to technological advancements and the need for high-quality fabrication processes. Metal fabrication involves the cutting, shaping and assembling of metal components, requiring continuous innovation to meet evolving industry standards. The market must address issues related to material costs, production efficiency and competition from alternative manufacturing methods. Ensuring high-quality fabrication while managing costs and technological changes are crucial for market success,” said the analyst.
“ Government incentives for industrial modernisation, along with favourable trade policies, will boost the country’ s metal fabrication industry,” it added.
The ITM INDUSTRY EUROPE trade show will take place from 26-29 May 2026 at the MTP Poznań Expo in Poland. The event centres around four halls: AUTOMA, MACH-TOOL, SURFEX and WELDING which showcase the state of modern engineering. Visitors will also be able to attend the Modernlog, Subcontracting and European Science Fair exhibitions which run concurrently with the trade show. n
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