REGIONAL REPORT
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IMF Directors highlighted the need to rebalance the policy mix to help rebuild buffers, strengthen resilience and support private investment-led growth. Structural reforms to boost productivity and tackle longer-term challenges from ageing and the climate transition are also important. Noting the need to ensure adequate labour supply, IMF Directors also encouraged policies to support the integration of women, old age adults and refugees into the labour market. IMF Directors recognized the progress on reducing emissions and encouraged further actions to meet climate goals and safeguard competitiveness.
According to the OECD’ s latest‘ Economic Survey of Poland 2025’( released on 4 February 2025), living standards in Poland have risen significantly in the past two decades with GDP per capita doubling since 2005. Following the inflationary shock in 2022-23, the economy is expected to continue to recover this year and next year. A sufficiently restrictive monetary policy is needed, said the OECD, to bring inflation back to target.
“ Following large increases in health, social and defence spending, Poland requires a sustained fiscal adjustment to bring down fiscal deficit. Despite important improvements in health, life expectancy in Poland remains among the lowest in the OECD. While spending has increased in recent years, there are avenues for improving the efficiency of the healthcare system. To sustain productivity growth, competition should be strengthened and workers’ skills upgraded. Implementing a more ambitious energy and climate change strategy will be key to achieving the goal of net-zero emissions. This requires a faster deployment of renewables and a phase-out of coal,” commented the OECD.
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The Deepwater Container Terminal Gdańsk( DCT Gdańsk).
Business conditions in the Polish manufacturing sector continued to improve in March 2025
It projected economic activity to rebound in 2025-26 as inflationary pressures and financial conditions ease. However, it tempered this projection with a degree of caution.
“ The economic outlook remains uncertain. Continued high wage growth could lead to strong consumption growth and pose an upside risk to inflation. Weaker global demand could weigh on exports while fiscal consolidation could take a toll on growth. The recovery could be also derailed by regional and global geopolitical developments,” it warned.
Polish manufacturing sector
Business conditions in the Polish manufacturing sector continued to improve in March 2025, the latest PMI ® data from S & P Global showed. There were back-to-back gains in output and new orders, while exports increased for the first time in over three years and the outlook brightened further. Cost pressures rose but were historically weak.
“ The S & P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI remained above 50.0 for the second month, running at 50.7 in March from 50.6 in February, indicating a sustained overall improvement in business conditions [ for ] manufacturers. Although modest, the rate of growth signalled was slightly stronger than the long-run survey average. In terms of the five component indices, faster growth of new orders and output and a renewed rise in stocks of purchases were partly offset by a reduction in employment, while suppliers’ delivery times were broadly neutral,” said analyst S & P Global on 1 April 2025.
“ Demand for Polish manufactured goods continued to recover in March. New orders rose for the second month running, and at the fastest rate since February 2022. Overall growth was supported by higher exports, with recovering EU markets mentioned by Polish firms. The sustained increase in new orders was matched by faster growth in output, and the first back-to-back expansion in over three years. Although moderate overall, production growth was sufficient to generate a net increase in finished goods inventories,” it continued.
“ The 12-month outlook strengthened further in March, with confidence rising for the fourth successive month. Sentiment was the highest since June 2021, and stronger than the long-run trend. Manufacturers attributed optimistic forecasts to recovering demand, new product releases, increased activity in the construction sector, new customers, the National Recovery Plan and higher exports,” added the analyst.
ISMR May 2025 | ismr. net | 45