GENERAL NEWS
Inspection of steel coils ( image : worldsteel .)
Short range outlook for steel
On 9 April 2024 , the World Steel Association ( worldsteel ) released its ‘ Short Range Outlook ’ ( SRO ) steel demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 . It forecasts that this year , demand will see a 1.7 % rebound to reach 1,793 Mt ( million tonnes ). Steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 % in 2025 to reach 1,815 Mt .
Commenting on the outlook , Dr . Martin Theuringer ( Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee ) said : “ After two years of negative growth and severe market volatility since the COVID crisis in 2020 , we see early signs of global steel demand settling in a growth trajectory in 2024 and 2025 .
“ The global economy continues to show resilience despite facing several strong headwinds : the lingering impact from the pandemic and Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine ; high inflation ; high costs and falling household purchasing power ; rising geopolitical uncertainties and forceful monetary tightening . As we approach the end of this monetary tightening cycle , we observed that tighter credit conditions and higher costs have led to a sharp slowdown in housing activity in most major markets and have hampered the manufacturing sector globally . While it seems the world economy will experience a soft landing from this monetary tightening cycle , we expect to see global steel demand growth remaining weak and market volatility remaining high on lagged impact of monetary tightening , high costs and high geopolitical uncertainties .”
Global steel demand
The association expects that steel demand in China in 2024 will remain around the level of 2023 as real estate investments continue to decline , but the corresponding steel demand loss will be offset by growth in steel demand from infrastructure investments and manufacturing sectors . In 2025 , it sees China steel demand “ returning to downtrend with a 1 % decline .” For 2023 , its apparent steel use
( ASU ) estimate for China is based on official statistics and suggests a 3.3 % drop .
“ Our projections for the world , excluding China , suggest a broad-based growth in steel demand at a relatively strong level of 3.5 % per annum over 2024-25 ,” continued the association . “ India has emerged as the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021 . Our projections suggest Indian steel demand will continue to charge ahead with 8 % growth in its steel demand over 2024 and 2025 , driven by continued growth in all steel-using sectors and especially by continued strong growth in infrastructure investments . In 2025 , steel demand in India is projected to be almost 70 million tonnes higher than in 2020 .”
Other emerging parts of the world , such as MENA and ASEAN , are expected to show accelerating growth in their steel demand over 2024-2025 after a significant slowdown over 2022-2023 . The association also expects the developed world to show a strengthening recovery with 1.3 % in 2024 and 2.7 % in 2025 .
6 | ismr . net | ISMR May 2024