REGIONAL REPORT expected mainly because of factors that support consumption : decelerating inflation ; real wage growth and tight labour markets as well as higher social transfers and benefits .
“ The 2025 growth forecast for Poland remained unchanged at 3.4 % compared to our previous projections . Investment growth , driven by structural reforms and unlocked EU funds , will additionally support Polish growth in 2025 . Regional growth is likely to slow to 2.8 % this year , following substantial strengthening to 3.3 % in 2023 as the economies of both Russia and war-hit Ukraine returned to growth and because of a more robust recovery in Central Asia . Regional output growth is likely to remain broadly unchanged in 2025 ,” confirmed the World Bank .
However , there are multiple headwinds to the outlook . A slowerthan-expected recovery in key trading partners , especially in the euro area , restrictive monetary policies and an exacerbation of geopolitical developments could further dampen growth across the region .
“ Countries of Europe and Central Asia continue to confront multiple crises , exacerbated by a challenging global growth environment ,” said Antonella Bassani , World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia region . “ Reviving productivity growth by stimulating business dynamism and improving resilience against the risks from climate change can help to protect the region ’ s people and accelerate economic growth .”
Sluggish growth will further delay the region ’ s recovery from recent shocks including Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine ( which remains ongoing ), the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 cost-of-living crisis .
“ Inflation has fallen faster than expected in the emerging markets and developing economies ( EMDEs ) of Europe and Central Asia , largely due to steep declines in global energy and food prices . The median annual consumer price inflation in the region fell to 4.2 % by February 2024 from 15 % at the start of 2023 . Nevertheless , the 2022 cost-of-living crisis continues to affect households , despite increases in real incomes last year ,” outlined the World Bank .
According to the European Commission ’ s update on 15 February this year , the Polish economy grew by 0.2 % in 2023 ( slightly less than projected in the Autumn Forecast ). Net exports contributed positively to growth as imports fell more than exports . Investment accelerated amid the culmination of EU funding from the 2014- 20 programming period . Private consumption contracted and the change in inventories had a large negative contribution to growth .
In 2025 , GDP growth is projected to pick up to 3.2 % due to strong private consumption and an uptick in investment fuelled by EU funds
The EIB extends a loan to Poland .
Top and below left : Scenes from the recent STOM-TOOL exhibition at Kielce , Poland .
“ Economic growth in Poland is set to accelerate to 2.7 % in 2024 . Private consumption is expected to be the main growth driver supported by rising real wages , additional government social support and receding inflationary pressures . Public consumption is also set to contribute robustly to growth on the back of new additional fiscal support measures . However , net exports are projected to contribute negatively , as rising domestic demand is expected to fuel imports . Investment is set to be held back by a slower start of EU funds flows from the 2021-27 programming period ,” said the European Commission .
In 2025 , GDP growth is projected to pick up to 3.2 % due to strong private consumption and an uptick in investment fuelled by EU funds . Risks to the outlook relate mainly to possible delays in the implementation of EU-funded investment .
€ 600 million boost
The European Investment Bank ( EIB ) is extending a € 600 million loan to the Republic of Poland to bolster the Polish economy . Investments supported with this financing will spur digital and social development , supplementing European Union grants .
“ This agreement is strategically aligned with the objectives of fostering innovation , advancing smart-economy development , creating new employment opportunities and reinforcing Poland ’ s competitiveness on the global stage . The Bank is dedicated to enhancing the economies of EU member states , and another significant agreement with the Republic of Poland strengthens Poland ’ s position among the EIB ’ s most important clients ,” said EIB Vice-President , Teresa Czerwińska .
The EIB financing will complement EU grants as well as funding from private sources and public contributions . This strategic collaboration positions the EIB as a pivotal contributor to the effective utilisation of European Commission grants .
“ This agreement is another example of our excellent cooperation . These investments will strengthen the competitiveness of our economy in the long term . The EIB not only provides long-term financing , but also provides expert assistance , which is crucial in the process of project preparation ,” said Poland ’ s Minister of Finance , Andrzej Domański .
The impact of the agreement will be multifaceted , directly contributing to the European Union ’ s economic , social and territorial cohesion . It will play a key role in augmenting research and
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