Ferrari body shell production .
MADE IN ITALY
We highlight macro-economic forecasts for Italy and review its manufacturing and metalforming sectors .
“ The Italian manufacturing sector for machine tools , robots and automation systems closed 2022 with double-digit increases for almost all main economic indicators .”
Italy ’ s economic output is estimated to have grown by 3.9 % in 2022 , according to the European Commission ’ s February 2023 update on its macro-economic forecast for Italy , driven by domestic demand ( in particular , housing investment ). The sharp increase in energy prices in the second half of the year , however , led to a marked slowdown in private consumption and in firms ’ investment , in the context of rising financing costs .
“ After the small contraction recorded in the last quarter of 2022 , economic activity is expected to pick up only gradually this year as household consumption continues to be held back by the loss of purchasing power , also due to the expiry of tax rebates on transport fuels ( at the end of 2022 ) and of other measures supporting household incomes ( at the end of March 2023 ). In the second half of the year , consumer spending is forecast to resume growing , in parallel with accelerating investments , also thanks to the public investment projects included in Italy ’ s RRP . On average , GDP is set to grow by 0.8 % in real terms in 2023 ,” said the European Commission .
“ Net exports are expected to subtract from GDP growth in both 2022 and 2023 . In 2024 , they are anticipated to become mildly supportive as exports of goods and services are set to benefit from a better outlook for international trade and still recovering tourist flows . Together with moderately expanding domestic demand , real GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.0 % in 2024 ,” it added .
HICP inflation picked up substantially in 2022 , fuelled by the sharp increase in energy prices . It is estimated to have peaked in the fourth quarter , averaging 8.7 % over the whole year . The higher inflation in the second half of 2022 carries over into 2023 , but base effects are projected to help bring the annual rate down to 6.1 %. Still subdued wage dynamics , given the slow process of collective contract renewal and the very partial indexation mechanism as well as an expected stabilisation of commodity prices , underpin the 2.6 % inflation rate forecast in 2024 .
Italian economic outlook
On 27 July 2022 , the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) concluded the Article IV consultation with Italy .
“ The Italian economy rebounded vigorously from the COVID-related drop in output and has avoided economic scarring . Employment and labour force participation have fully recovered , and banks ’ nonperforming loans have continued to decline and their capital positions have strengthened . Nevertheless , the economy is now facing major new challenges . The war in Ukraine and COVID-related disruptions to global
44 | ismr . net | ISMR May 2023