Energy transition potential for machine tool industry
GENERAL NEWS
Annual global investment in energyrelated plant is set to more than double in the future , from 762 billion euros in 2020 to 1.808 billion euros in 2040 . This represents an annual rise of 4.4 per cent in real terms . That was calculated in a recent study by the VDW ( German Machine Tool Builders ’ Association ), in cooperation with the Munich-based consulting firm , Strategy Engineers . As the researchers confirm , there are several promising areas for the machine tool industry . These include the production of gearboxes and bearings for wind energy , core components ( such as compressors , pumps and valves for electrolysis ), fuel cells and large numbers of heat pumps .
The aim of the study was to examine the opportunities and challenges arising for the machine tool industry as a result of the energy transition . The study looks at the entire energy value chain of electricity – from generation via distribution through to storage . Renewable energy has a central role to play . Also considered are hydrogen , stationary and mobile fuel cells , heat pumps and carbon recovery and storage .
“ The German government has declared its intention to speed up the energy transition process – which has significantly raised the pressure . Greater efforts are needed to combat man-made climate change . At the same time , the war in Ukraine is drastically illustrating how important it is to free ourselves from our dependence on fossil fuels ,” said Franz-Xaver Bernhard , Chairman , VDW . “ Available exclusively to our members , the study provides timely guidance on how worthwhile it is for machine tool manufacturers to expand their customer base to include the power industry ,” Bernhard added .
The power sector is responsible for a quarter of CO₂ emissions . It therefore has a major role to play in the reduction of pollutants . Many industrialised countries have committed themselves to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2050 , but massive investment will be required to achieve this . Key solutions include expanding low-emission energy sources , upgrading the power grid and developing a hydrogen economy .
Major investment is therefore being made in zero-emission technologies such as solar and wind power , as well as in enabling technologies for the energy transition ( such as power grid expansion , carbon emission reduction , the establishment of a hydrogen economy and heat pumps ).
■ The development of renewable energy sources ( wind power , solar power , hydropower ) currently accounts for 288 billion euros of investment , a figure which is set to rise to 569 billion euros by 2040 .
■ Investment will need to be made in the future on securing global power supplies in the face of increasing volatility due to the increase in renewable energy sources . As a result , investment in the power grid will rise from around 220 billion euros at present to more than 600 billion euros in 2040 .
■ Similarly , major growth is expected in the development of a hydrogen economy and the expansion of carbon capture / storage technologies , including power-to-X technologies , where the political will to promote the technologies will be crucial .
■ There is great demand for “ transitional technologies ” such as nuclear and gasfired power plants to ensure base and peak load capability , and an undisputed need for their further development . Investment in these technologies will depend heavily on regional political developments . There will be a significant worldwide decrease in investment in emission-intensive technologies ( such as coal-fired power generation ) by 2040 .
“ But that ’ s not all ; the variety of applications and technologies makes it necessary to consider the individual areas in detail to identify potential areas of machine tool use ,” explained Bernhard . The VDW study does this by analysing demand for the machine tools needed to machine the relevant components in the individual segments . Metal components which involve a high degree of machining , and have exacting tolerances and surface quality demands , are required especially for mechanical conversion in gas , steam and water power plants as well as in wind turbines and flywheel storage systems .
Franz-Xaver Bernhard , Chairman , VDW ( German Machine Tool Builders ’ Association ).
“ Accordingly , the greatest potential is offered by wind turbine components which involve sophisticated gearbox , tracking system and large-bearing production processes . This is further reinforced by the trend towards ever more powerful plants . Also relevant is the construction of gas turbines for power generation in gas and steam power plants . Finally , high volumes of many overlapping peripheral components ( such as pumps , compressors , generators , bearings , valves , tanks and pipes ) are required ,” said the VDW .
Heat pumps used for heating buildings are of particular interest on account of the large volumes involved . In the future , the focus will shift to components for the expansion of the hydrogen economy ( such as compressors and stack end plates for electrolysis , and mobile and stationary fuel cells ). Beyond the generation , storage and distribution of power itself , potential also lies in automation technology to produce photovoltaic modules , battery cells and fuel or electrolysis stacks . Energy distribution requirements , for example in transport vehicles or special ships , as well as machines to produce components for the implementation of the energy turnaround complete the demand .
“ Overall , the energy sector does not currently feature strongly in machine tool sales . However , the projected 3.6 per cent real growth per year of the relevant market segment until 2040 is significantly above the average longer-term global market growth for machine tools ( 1.1 per cent ). The study shows that the considerable growth predicted for the power industry up to 2040 offers clear potential for manufacturers ,” VDW Chairman Bernhard summed up .
“ It is especially worthwhile for companies that are already active in the power industry and / or are looking to diversify their customer base to consider the study results carefully . They provide valuable information that is not available anywhere else at this level of detail ,” he concluded . ■
www . vdw . de
ISMR May 2022 | sheetmetalplus . com | 7