GERMANY IN FOCUS
We analyse growth forecasts for the German economy as well as industrial trends and machine tool projections .
“ Germany ’ s machine tool industry has been experiencing a strong and broad-based upswing , in terms of its markets and customer sectors , since last year .”
The German economy saw a strong recovery in the second and third quarters of 2021 . “ The recovery would have been even more pronounced if , in particular , industry had not been hampered by supply bottlenecks for intermediate input products and sharp rises in commodity prices . Despite greater demand , value- added fell to a considerable degree . This also dampened enterprises ’ exports and investment in machinery and equipment . Overall , real GDP rose by 3¾ %, in seasonally adjusted terms , during the second and third quarters of 2021 combined ,” commented Deutsche Bundesbank .
According to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ), Germany ’ s economy contracted by just under five per cent in 2020 , outperforming most European peers . But renewed waves of COVID-19 infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of 2021 . Germany ’ s short-time work programme , Kurzarbeit ( KA )— the world ’ s oldest and best known job retention scheme — was rendered more flexible and generous in response to the pandemic .
“ Coronavirus containment measures have been tightened once again because of the fourth wave of the pandemic . This is having a negative impact on private consumption , in particular ….. …. While demand for industrial products remains high , the range of orders on hand is currently at a record level . Nevertheless , the supply bottlenecks are likely to continue for some time . This projection assumes that these bottlenecks will begin to ease gradually during the course of the first quarter of 2022 ,” commented Deutsche Bundesbank in December 2021 .
“ Following a rise of 2½ % in 2021 , calendar-adjusted real GDP may see even stronger growth in 2022 and 2023 , at just over 4 % and slightly more than 3 % respectively . In 2024 , economic growth will then diminish considerably to around 1 %,” added the bank .
Machine tool industry surges ahead
Orders received by the German machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 were 51 per cent up on the previous year ’ s figure . Orders from Germany rose by 62 per cent . Overseas orders were 46 per cent higher than in the previous year . Over the course of 2021 , orders received by German manufacturers rose by 58 per cent . Domestic orders were 51 per cent higher than in the previous year and overseas orders were 62 per cent higher .
42 | sheetmetalplus . com | ISMR March 2022