Dubai from above ( Shutterstock . com ).
“ The IMF expects real GDP growth for the Middle East North Africa ( MENA ) region to reach four per cent in 2021 .”
The World Bank MENA Economic Update for Spring 2021 estimates that the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region ’ s economies contracted by 3.8 % in 2020 , which is 1.3 percentage points above the World Bank forecasts in October 2020 . However , the regional growth estimate is 6.4 percentage points lower than the prepandemic growth forecast published in October 2019 .
“ The estimated accumulated cost of the pandemic , in terms of gross domestic product ( GDP ) losses by the end of 2021 , will amount to US $ 227 billion . The MENA region is expected to recover only partially in 2021 but that recovery is , in part , dependent upon an equitable rollout of vaccines ,” explained the World Bank .
“ The substantial borrowing that MENA governments incurred to finance health and social protection measures increased government debt . Countries must continue spending on health and income transfers , which will add to already high debt burdens and lead to complicated policy decisions after the pandemic recedes ,” it continued .
Business pulse surveys in MENA
TAKING THE PULSE
We chronicle the impact of COVID-19 on the Middle East North Africa ( MENA ) region .
To gather timely information about how firms are affected and navigating through the pandemic , the World Bank , often in partnership with national statistical offices , has been implementing the COVID-19 Business Pulse Surveys ( BPS ). Since May 2020 , the BPSs have covered more than 50 countries — including Algeria , Djibouti , Morroco , Tunisia , Jordan and the West Bank and Gaza from the MENA region — with more than 100,000 businesses from different regions and countries of different sizes and income levels .
“ The MENA BPSs findings highlight that the key channels through which the COVID-19 pandemic affected the firms include revenue loss , financial distress and job loss . However , despite a drastic fall in business activities and sales , most MENA firms have been holding onto their workers and are slow in adopting technology , possibly resulting from the underlying social contract in MENA . The surveys also show that MENA firms remain highly uncertain about the recovery and view a sharp decline in demand , production and work hours , while many also fear future pandemic waves and lockdown . While most of the firms seem to re-open at some capacity , a non-trivial share of firms ( 10-20 %) across MENA ’ s surveyed countries remains closed ,” commented Nadir Mohammed , Djibrilla Issa and Aminur Rahman in an article on 23 March 2021 in The National Newspaper .
“ A significant share of MENA firms ( e . g . 14 % in the West Bank and Gaza and 17 % in Algeria ) have reduced their permanent employees . Nonetheless , the share of MENA firms that laid off workers seems to be less than that in some other regions . Most MENA firms have been trying to hold onto their permanent workforce and attempting to make adjustments by providing leave ( often without pay ), reduced work hours , salary reductions and reduced temporary workers . Nonetheless ,