China in focus
According to the World Bank ’ s last China
Metal product production line in North China .
Economic Update , China ’ s growth is estimated at 4.9 percent in 2024 and projected at 4.5 per cent in 2025 . While recent policy easing measures are expected to provide moderate support , subdued household and business confidence , along with headwinds in the property sector , will continue weighing on growth in 2025 . Structural constraints to growth include low consumption , high debt levels among property developers and local governments , and an ageing population .
“ It is important to balance short-term support to growth with long-term structural reforms ,” said Mara Warwick , World Bank Country Director for China , Mongolia and Korea . “ Addressing challenges in the property sector , strengthening social safety nets and improving local government finances will be essential to unlocking a sustained recovery . Clear communication of specific policy measures will be crucial to strengthening the confidence of markets and households .”
China ’ s economy faces both domestic and external risks . Domestically , a more persistent downturn in the property sector could further weaken investment and local government revenues . Additionally , further weakening of labour market conditions due to lower enterprise profitability and reduced hiring could reduce consumption . Globally , heightened uncertainties around trade pose risks to China ’ s exports . On the upside , higher-than expected fiscal spending and more decisive policy actions to stabilise the property sector , following recent guidance from policymakers , could lift the growth forecast above the current baseline projection .
Enhancing economic mobility is particularly important in China , as it can help bridge rural-urban divides , reduce income inequality and unlock greater domestic consumption — a key pillar for rebalancing the economy towards more sustainable , domestic demand-driven growth .
and developing economies . However , as the IMF showed in its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook , there are also more jobs in the region ’ s advanced economies that can be complemented by AI , meaning that the technology will probably enhance productivity rather than replace these roles altogether .
“ The concentration of such jobs in Asia ’ s advanced economies could worsen inequality between countries over time . While about 40 per cent of jobs in Singapore are rated as highly complementary to AI , the share is just three per cent in Laos ,” said the IMF .
“ AI could also increase inequality within countries . Most workers at risk of displacement in the Asia-Pacific region work in service , sales and clerical support roles . Meanwhile , workers who are more likely to benefit from AI typically work in managerial , professional and technician roles that already tend to be among the better paid professions ,” it continued .
“ We also find that women are more likely to be at risk of disruption from AI because they are more often in service , sales and clerical roles . Men , by contrast , are more represented in occupations that are unlikely to be impacted by AI at this stage ( like farm workers , machine operators and low-skill elementary workers ),” it concluded .
How can Asian policymakers address the threat of worsening inequality ? The IMF suggests effective social safety nets combined with reskilling programmes for affected workers will be critical to achieve
Image : Shutterstock . com . an inclusive AI transition . Secondly , education and training to help the workforce leverage what AI makes possible will be especially relevant in Asia ’ s emerging economies , given that they have relatively few jobs in which AI could make workers more productive . It will also help displaced workers transition to new roles and support research and development that enhances innovation .
“ In addition , governments should set regulations that promote ethical AI use and data protection . Doing so can mitigate the risks of AI-induced disruptions and better capitalise on the opportunities for economic growth and improved productivity ,” said the IMF .
Bangladesh and Myanmar
In December 2024 , Bangladesh and the World Bank signed two financing agreements totalling US $ 900 million to help the country achieve environment sustainability , inclusive growth and climate resiliency , including in urban infrastructure .
The US $ 500-million Second Bangladesh Green and Climate Resilient Development Credit will support policies to help the country ’ s transition to green and climate-resilient development . The financing supports policy reforms to improve public planning and financing and implementation for green and climate-resilient interventions at local and national levels as well as promote clean and resourceefficient production and services in key sectors . The US $ 400-million Resilient Urban and Territorial Development Project will help improve climate-resilient and gender-responsive urban infrastructure and urban management capacities . The project will be implemented in seven city clusters along the economic corridor covering over 950km of the highway from Cox Bazaar in the south to Panchagarh in the north of Bangladesh . The project will benefit about 17 million people living in these selected urban areas .
Natural disasters , ongoing conflict and widespread shortages of basic commodities have hit Myanmar ’ s economy hard , while the economic outlook remains difficult . According to the World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor , Myanmar ’ s GDP is expected to contract by one percent in the fiscal year ending March 2025 , a downward revision from the previous projection of modest growth . The agriculture , manufacturing and services sectors are projected to contract , with production constrained by ongoing shortages of raw materials , inadequate electricity supply and weakness in domestic demand . Migration has served as a crucial coping mechanism in Myanmar , while also triggering domestic shortages of labour and human capital .
The Philippines
“ Following a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2022 , the Philippine economy moderated in 2023 , growing by 5.5 per cent . Growth
The Manila skyline in The Philippines .
Image : Shutterstock . com .
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