“ The International Monetary Fund now forecasts GDP growth in France of around 2½ per cent for 2022 and around ¾ per cent for 2023 .”
According to Trading Economics , manufacturing accounts for 86 per cent of total production in France . The largest segments within ‘ manufacturing ’ are food products and beverages ( 13 per cent of total production ); machinery and equipment goods ( 13 per cent ); basic metals and fabricated metal products ( 12 per cent ) and other manufacturing , repair and installation of machinery and equipment ( 12 per cent ). Other segments include transport equipment ( ten per cent ); rubber and plastics products , and other non-metallic mineral products ( eight per cent ); and chemicals and chemical products ( six per cent ).
Although inflation has surged over the past year , driven by supplychain bottlenecks and the energy price shock , it continues to be well below the EU average . This is largely due to energy price controls and subsidies , which have kept price increases an estimated two-three ppts lower . These controls also lowered the pass-through into food and goods prices . The International Monetary Fund expects inflation to remain near five per cent in 2023 on average , as price controls ease , and stay persistent in 2024 with a gradual decline to around two per cent in 2025 . We examine selected forecasts and manufacturing trends in France for an idea of how the country will progress in 2023 and beyond .
The energy price shock presents opportunities to accelerate the green transition
December 2022 business survey
MADE IN FRANCE
We examine selected forecasts and manufacturing trends in France for 2023 and beyond .
According to the Banque de France ’ s December 2022 Business Survey , French business leaders expect activity to continue to expand in services , remain almost stable in industry and decline in construction .
“ Despite the highly uncertain economic environment , marked by a series of massive external shocks , activity remained generally resilient . According to the business leaders surveyed ( approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 28 November and 5 December 2022 ), activity improved in December in the three major sectors , and to a greater extent than expected the previous month . The medium-term outlook is shrouded in greater uncertainty ,” it explained .
According to the survey , supply difficulties eased further in industry ( 41 % of industrial firms reported difficulties in November 2022 , after 43 % did in October 2022 ) and in construction ( 36 %, after 41 %). Finished goods prices continued to rise at a sustained pace . Recruitment difficulties eased slightly ( cited by 53 % of respondents , compared with 55 % in October 2022 ).
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