INDUSTRY REPORT
Electrification remains a growing dynamic — 2021 has seen an “ arms race ” of ambition as OEMs declare electrification targets for the coming 5-15 years
Full year 2021 sales are expected to be up just 2.9 % from the levels achieved in 2020 . IHS Markit remains cautious on recovery prospects , as the global auto industry grapples with this “ perfect storm ” of unprecedented circumstances . Depressed vehicle output levels are expected to impact vehicle lead times for some time , pressuring depleted inventories and delaying fulfilment of prevailing order levels .
“ The path of the pandemic remains an important driver of the 2022 auto demand cycle , especially the ‘ race ’ between vaccine and variants . Concerns remain as winter arrives for Northern Hemisphere nations , and the emergence of the Omicron variant represents a worrying development ,” said Colin Couchman , Executive Director , Global Light Vehicle Forecasting , IHS Markit .
Most regions face limited recovery prospects on supply chain challenges and potential further COVID-19 flare-ups .
The European auto industry looks set for a bleak mid-winter as widening virus concerns combine with ongoing supply chain woes , with concerns for German-based production . The 2021 Western and Central European demand forecast foresees 13.9 million units , just scraping into growth territory , up 0.2 % y / y . 2022 demand is set at 15.0m units (+ 7.8 %), according to IHS Markit .
“ European car consumers are expected to hunker down for a second winter of COVID-19 , but the new year might struggle to deliver meaningful improvement to new car sales levels ,” said Couchman .
Looking at 2022 , U . S . sales volumes are expected to reach nearly 15.5 million units , up an estimated 2.6 % from the projected 2021 level of approximately 15.1 million units .
" For 2022 , the pace of sales is expected to quicken in the second half of the year . Given current inventory conditions , it ' s difficult to project significant demand recovery in the first half of 2022 . But we expect to exit 2022 with a pace of sales more recognisable to pre-COVID levels , setting the stage for better volume outlooks into 2023 and 2024 ,” according to Chris Hopson , Manager , North
The automotive sector is driving change .
American Light Vehicle Sales Forecast , IHS Markit .
In Mainland China for 2021 , IHS Markit analysts foresee the market down by 1 % y / y , to 23.4 million units , as supply chain shortages choke off market growth . Near-term risks are balanced , and 2022 is currently set at 24.2 million (+ 3.3 % y / y ), with more meaningful recovery expected for 2023 — back above pre-crisis levels to 26.9 million , up by 11.3 % y / y .
Global light vehicle production in 2021 is expected to finish at 75.5 million units , a paltry 1.2 % improvement over 2020 levels .
For 2022 , IHS Markit forecasts a rebound in light vehicle production of 9.0 per cent , to 82.3 million units . The outlook will continue to be characterised by the availability of automotive-grade chips , at least until 2023 . The balance of incremental capacity gains within the semiconductor sector , heightened ‘ chips-per-vehicle ’ requirements and robust non-automotive chip demand all feature in this assessment .
“ Overall , while manufacturing operations in most regions are expected to improve , capacity constraints within the semiconductor supply chain remain the single most influential feature of the forecast . As the semiconductor tide recedes , will this expose further risks to the auto recovery ? Threats elsewhere within the supply chain could become more apparent as chip supplies improve , notably , logistics , worker-related issues and key raw materials shortages ,” said Mark Fulthorpe , executive director of light vehicle production forecasts at IHS Markit .
In Greater China , IHS Markit forecasts modest growth for 2022 of 1.6 per cent , to 24.3 million units . Europe is expected to produce 18.5 million units in 2022 , up from an estimated 15.7 million in 2021 . For the North American region , momentum is improving heading
Digitalisation is a key automotive trend .
Connectivity , digitalisation and other new technologies introduce new ( data-driven ) business models
ISMR February 2022 | sheetmetalplus . com | 25