INDUSTRY REPORT
Europe is expected to recover in 2021 , gaining 15 % ( y / y ), but it is a fragile road with more obvious risk to the outlook than China or North America
“ Excess premiums for 2020 are expected to reach 1.04 billion Euros with a market wide CO 2 target miss of 2g ,” explained Vijay Subramanian , IHS Markit CO 2
Compliance Director , Automotive . “ Under the Green Deal framework , the 2030 passenger car
CO 2 target is expected to get more stringent compared with the current legislative requirement of 37.5 % CO 2 reduction from
2021 levels .”
China remains a leading market for electrification with its “ dual-credit ” policy . The 4 L / 100km 2025 CAFC Phase-5 target with updated new energy vehicle ( NEV ) requirements starting from 2021 will be the key driver to further intensify electrification development in the region .
Electric vehicle ( EV ) charging .
“ However , current IHS Markit forecasts predict BEV share of nearly 14.6 %, representing nearly 3.2 million passenger vehicles in China by 2025 – which will still leave a significant gap and more than 10 million CAFC credit deficits ,” said Subramanian .
On the other hand , in the U . S ., the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient ( SAFE ) Vehicles Rule was finalised at the end of April 2020 .
“ As a result , relaxation of standards is expected to provide some headwinds to the wave of new BEV vehicles being introduced to the market . However , with the incoming Biden administration , the possibility of the U . S . rejoining the Paris Agreement and California waiver being reinstated may well incentivise BEVs in the U . S . market sooner rather than later ,” according to Xi Wang , IHS Markit powertrain analyst .
In total , passenger car BEV volumes across China , Europe and the U . S . are expected to reach 2.45 million in 2021 , or about 5.4 %, according to IHS Markit forecasts , representing an increase of 1.7 % over 2020 . n
In total , passenger car BEV volumes across China , Europe and the U . S . are expected to reach 2.45 million in 2021 , or about 5.4 %
CONTACT IHS Markit is a specialist in critical information , analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide . Headquartered in London , it has more than 50,000 business and government customers , including 80 per cent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world ’ s leading financial institutions . For further details , see
www . ihsmarket . com
20 | sheetmetalplus . com | ISMR February 2021