In 2021 , IHS Markit expects the market in China to recover further to 24.9 million units ( up 5.6 % y / y )
vaccine by summer ,” commented Chris Hopson , principal automotive analyst at IHS Markit .
There are shades of “ first in , first out ” for Mainland China , as effective pandemic containment has enabled an ongoing auto demand recovery , with 2020 set to deliver 23.6 million units , down by just 5 % y / y . Bright spots include premium demand and the light commercial vehicle ( LCV ) sector . Government support includes revised new-energy vehicle ( NEV ) rules , a six-month delay to the China 6 emissions deadline , city de-restrictions , license plate quota increases , and revised lending rules . In 2021 , IHS Markit expects the market in China to recover further to 24.9 million units ( up 5.6 % y / y ).
Production expected to rebound in 2021
The analyst expected global light vehicle production in 2020 to finish at 74.1 million units , a 17 % decline over 2019 levels . For 2021 , IHS Markit forecasts a rebound in light vehicle production of 14 per cent , to 84.3- million units , based on current analysis .
“ This reflects continued recoveries , particularly in the major markets of China , Europe and North America . Manufacturing operations in most regions are largely restored and while COVID-19 secure practices will affect technical capacity , in most cases there is enough to support recovery ,” said the analyst .
In China , manufacturing activity is reaching pre-COVID levels , and IHS Markit forecasts 2021 output to rise 5.6 % over 2020 and surpass 2019 ’ s admittedly weakened levels . Threats to the supply chain remain , but to date these have been successfully navigated since the restart in March .
For North America , the recovery profile continues but there are some unique challenges . In the short term as 2020 concludes , there is concern over potential supply disruption as a direct result of COVID-19 absenteeism and IHS Markit has a cautious view of Q1 in light of this . The balance of the year is expected to show production increase 29 % ( y / y ) in the U . S ., boosted by efforts to close the inventory gap that opened up back in Q2 2020 when manufacturing was off-line . With demand levels expected to remain healthy , this effect , said the analyst , is forecast to run across the next 12 months .
Europe is expected to recover in 2021 , gaining 15 % ( y / y ), but it is a fragile road with more obvious risk to the outlook than China or North America . Having navigated a series of second-wave lockdowns in
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November , more stringent measures are now being adopted in Germany and much of the United Kingdom . At present , this is not posing a direct risk to manufacturing .
In addition to the risks posed by the pandemic , the region also faces the introduction of a new corporate fleet average for CO 2 emissions and balancing the vehicle mix is likely to be a constraint .
Electrification remains a growing dynamic
In the European market , battery electric vehicle ( BEV ) sales have been significantly boosted by regulatory requirements , despite the COVID-19 impacts . The 95 g / km passenger car CO 2 target has been phased in during 2020 and will be fully implemented in 2021 . BEV sales share in October 2020 climbed to nearly 7 % and is moving aggressively in the last quarter of 2020 as well , aiding all major car manufacturers in minimising potential gap-to-compliance .
Looking at 2021 , U . S . sales volumes are expected to reach 16 million units , up an estimated 10 % from the projected 2020 level of approximately 14.5 million units
European car production .
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