INDUSTRY REPORT
THE FUTURE IN FOCUS
“ Global 2021 auto recovery prospects very much depend upon the path of the pandemic , and especially whether governments can deliver on vaccine programmes .”
Analysis from IHS Markit indicates that global auto sales will gain momentum in 2021 .
Analyst IHS Markit forecasts new light
vehicle sales of 83.4 million globally in
2021 , up 9 % from a 2020 projection of 76.5 million , as industry demand levels emerge this year in the wake of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic – especially in major markets . The forecast assumes that effective vaccines will be widely available by mid-2021 , although full availability is not expected until sometime in 2022 .
Full year 2020 sales are expected to be down 15 % from the levels achieved in 2019 . IHS Markit remains cautious on recovery prospects , with key markets likely to experience differing demand cycles . Some markets face further fallout from the pandemic , not least due to additional viruscontrol restrictions for the winter months . On a brighter note , for an industry that had traditionally been dependent upon in-person showroom traffic since its inception , online sales and contactless delivery programmes have been swiftly rolled out and are helping to offset the impact of restrictions on registrations .
“ Global 2021 auto recovery prospects very much depend on the path of the pandemic , especially whether governments can deliver on vaccine programmes . Many parts of the world face a winter of stubbornly high COVID-19 infection rates and ongoing restrictions , which could further dent demand prospects . The hope is that demand begins to normalise from midyear 2021 ,” said Colin Couchman , Executive Director , Global Light Vehicle Forecasting , IHS Markit .
The hope is that demand begins to normalise from mid-year 2021
Regional sales outlooks
European recovery prospects are mixed , with worrying virus resurgences and ongoing restrictions , varied economic support , the Brexit deal and fears for a post-holiday third wave of the virus . Total Western and Central European automotive sales estimates for 2020 are set at 13.7 million units , down 24.2 % ( y / y ), according to IHS Markit . Government auto stimulus programmes from mid-2020 continue to help , especially for the four major European markets . The cautious December 2020 rollout of the vaccine in the UK provides some hope in the gloomy mid-winter , with demand growth set at 11 % y / y , to 15.3 million units for 2021 , although Brexit risks remain .
“ European car consumers are firmly in full ‘ wait-and-see ’ mode to see how COVID-19 , EVs and Brexit pan out ,” said Couchman .
The sequential rise in U . S . auto demand levels from the trough in April 2020 reflects that consumers who were willing , ready and able to purchase a new vehicle did so . While the pace of growth for auto sales flattened out after September , IHS Markit expects continued growth in auto demand levels in 2021 , supported by sustained economic development from better-than-expected news on vaccines and likely economic stimulus .
“ Looking at 2021 , U . S . sales volumes are expected to reach 16 million units , up an estimated 10 % from the projected 2020 level of approximately 14.5 million units . The pace of sales is anticipated to be stronger in the second half of the year , following the expected widespread availability of the
18 | sheetmetalplus . com | ISMR February 2021