REGIONAL REPORT
“ The World Bank has published a modest growth forecast for economies in the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA region ), amid rising uncertainty .”
MENA countries include Algeria ; Djibouti ; Bahrain ; Egypt ; Iran ; Iraq ; Israel ; Jordan ; Kuwait ; Lebanon ; Libya ; Morocco ; Oman ; Qatar ; Saudi Arabia ; Syria ; Tunisia ; United Arab Emirates and Yemen . The region is typically considered to include around 19 countries , including many OPEC nations , but the definition can be stretched to include up to 24 .
The World Bank forecasts a modest uptick in MENA growth for 2024 , which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region . The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters , while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries ( both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers ).
Despite current challenges , the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labour market , leveraging its strategic location and promoting innovation
“ Despite current challenges , the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labour market , leveraging its strategic location and promoting innovation . Closing the gender employment gap , rethinking the footprint of the public sector and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap towards the frontier . Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier as conflict can undo decades of progress , delaying economic development by generations ,” commented the World Bank .
Modest growth forecast
MARKETS IN MENA
Market analysis and economic projections for the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region , including GCC countries , come under the spotlight .
Growth continues to be subdued in the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) region because of uncertainties heightened by the conflict in the region , said the World Bank in October 2024 in its MENA Economic Update , entitled ‘ Growth in the Middle East and North Africa ’.
The report forecasts the region ’ s overall gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth to rise modestly to 2.2 per cent in 2024 in real terms , up from 1.8 per cent in 2023 . This uptick is driven by Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC ) countries , where growth is projected to rise from 0.5 per cent in 2023 to 1.9 per cent in 2024 .
In the rest of MENA , growth is expected to decelerate . Oil importers ’ growth is forecast to slow from 3.2 per cent in 2023 to 2.1 per cent in 2024 , and that of non-GCC oil exporters to decline from 3.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent .
The report uses an innovative measure — the dispersion of views amongst private sector forecasters — to gauge levels of uncertainty . By this measure , economic uncertainty in MENA is currently twice the average of other emerging markets and developing economies worldwide .
The long shadow of conflict
Image : Shutterstock . com .
“ The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already inflicted a heavy human and economic toll . The Palestinian territories are nearing economic collapse , with their largest economic contraction on record . Gaza ’ s economy shrank by 86 per cent in the first half of 2024 and the West Bank is facing an unprecedented fiscal and private sector crisis . In conflict-affected Lebanon , the outlook remains highly uncertain and will be shaped by the trajectory of the conflict . Meanwhile , other
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