REGIONAL REPORT
IMF Directors also underscored the importance of addressing labour shortages and promoting green and digital transformation in Poland
“ Over the medium term , strong household and corporate balance sheets and anticipated Next Generation EU grants should maintain solid economic growth , with little scarring to output anticipated from the pandemic ,” it explained .
Poland ’ s substantial fiscal buffers enabled a strong fiscal response to the crisis . Many of the initially broad-based measures were extended with greater targeting to support sectors most impacted by later waves of the pandemic . Driven by strong revenue growth associated with the economic recovery and a lower level of pandemic-related fiscal support , the general government deficit is estimated by the IDF to have declined from 7.1 per cent of GDP in 2020 to 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2021 , with general government debt decreasing slightly to 56 per cent of GDP .
Over the medium term , the general government deficit is projected to stabilise ( by the IMF ) to around 2½ percent of GDP , with debt stable at around 50 per cent of GDP .
IMF Directors supported the ongoing tightening of Poland ’ s monetary policy , noting that further rate increases could be necessary to drive inflation back to the target and stave off overheating . They encouraged the central bank to retain flexibility , taking into account evolving economic conditions and communicating its policy decisions clearly . Directors welcomed the end of the asset purchase programme consistent with the shift in monetary policy .
IMF Directors also underscored the importance of addressing labour shortages and promoting green and digital transformation in Poland , supported by an enhanced public investment framework and EU funds . Active labour market policies , especially those focused on upskilling the labour force , will help workers move to expanding activities and increase labour participation . Directors welcomed the authorities ’ intention to gradually reduce the country ’ s reliance on coal and increase the use of renewables . In this context , they saw value in developing a long-term investment financing strategy , possibly including consideration of carbon taxation to reinforce incentives for emissions reduction .
Visitors at the ITM Industry Europe trade show in Poland .
The container port at Gdańsk ( Shutterstock . com ).
Ukrainian refugee crisis
As of 11 March 2022 , an estimated 1.5 million refugees from the Russian invasion of Ukraine had fled to Poland . Hundreds of thousands of Polish people spontaneously and generously mobilised to help and support the refugees .
“ The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has cast a dark shadow on the [ Polish ] region , with the economic impacts being felt most notably in a sharp depreciation of the zloty . This will add further fuel to inflationary pressures as import costs climb , commodity prices rise and supply lines with neighbouring Ukraine are disrupted . Poland has become the main staging point for war supplies entering the embattled country ,” commented analyst , Focus Economics .
The EU Commission recently adopted a proposal for Cohesion ’ s Action for Refugees in Europe ( CARE ) allowing UE Member States and regions ( such as Poland ) to provide emergency support to people fleeing from Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine . CARE will help Member States to provide emergency support covering the basic needs of people fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine . These needs include access to services such as temporary accommodation , food and water supplies or medical care .
CARE may also enhance the administrative capacity of Member States to cater for the needs of refugees by supporting e . g . additional infrastructure equipment or staff necessary to cater for the needs of refugees . Member States may also use this funding to develop tailormade solutions for the long-term integration of people with a migrant background through investments in housing , education , employment , health , social inclusion and care , or other social services .
Cohesion policy support will complement the support from the Asylum , Migration and Integration Fund ( AMIF ) and other funding sources . The Commission is also proposing to prolong the implementation period for the money available to Member States under the 2014-2020 Home Affairs funds , which would release around € 420- million in additional support .
Automotive , aerospace and renewable energy
“ In 2017 , the revenues of automotive manufacturers in Poland reached 37.5 billion euros . Companies dealing in the sale of vehicles , their parts and accessories , as well as repairs , earned 46 billion euros . In 2018 , 208,000 commercial vehicles were produced . Poland is the sixth-largest producer of this type of vehicle in Europe ,” commented the Polish Investment Agency .
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